**Current short-range forecasts for Munich on September 21 point to a daily maximum of 16–17 °C under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds and a chance of light showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes (37 % for 17 °C, 28 % for 16 °C), while 18 °C remains competitive at 27.5 %. Cooler-than-average conditions stem from a post-frontal regime: northwest flow advects maritime air, and persistent cloud cover reduces solar heating compared with the September climatological high of roughly 19 °C. Model consensus (DWD, ECMWF, GFS runs) shows limited diurnal warming, with afternoon peaks held down by the marine layer and any scattered precipitation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between modest model spread—some guidance edges toward 18 °C if clouds break earlier, others cap at 16 °C with steadier showers—against the strong signal for suppressed temperatures. New high-resolution runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 21?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 21?
17°C 37%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
5%
16°C
28%
17°C
37%
18°C
27%
19°C
7%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
17°C 37%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$173 Vol.
5%
16°C
$1,698 Vol.
28%
17°C
$464 Vol.
37%
18°C
$593 Vol.
27%
19°C
$141 Vol.
7%
20°C
$49 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$79 Vol.
1%
23°C
$507 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$746 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts for Munich on September 21 point to a daily maximum of 16–17 °C under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds and a chance of light showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes (37 % for 17 °C, 28 % for 16 °C), while 18 °C remains competitive at 27.5 %.
Cooler-than-average conditions stem from a post-frontal regime: northwest flow advects maritime air, and persistent cloud cover reduces solar heating compared with the September climatological high of roughly 19 °C. Model consensus (DWD, ECMWF, GFS runs) shows limited diurnal warming, with afternoon peaks held down by the marine layer and any scattered precipitation.
Traders appear to weigh the balance between modest model spread—some guidance edges toward 18 °C if clouds break earlier, others cap at 16 °C with steadier showers—against the strong signal for suppressed temperatures. New high-resolution runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,448End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts for Munich on September 21 point to a daily maximum of 16–17 °C under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds and a chance of light showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes (37 % for 17 °C, 28 % for 16 °C), while 18 °C remains competitive at 27.5 %.
Cooler-than-average conditions stem from a post-frontal regime: northwest flow advects maritime air, and persistent cloud cover reduces solar heating compared with the September climatological high of roughly 19 °C. Model consensus (DWD, ECMWF, GFS runs) shows limited diurnal warming, with afternoon peaks held down by the marine layer and any scattered precipitation.
Traders appear to weigh the balance between modest model spread—some guidance edges toward 18 °C if clouds break earlier, others cap at 16 °C with steadier showers—against the strong signal for suppressed temperatures. New high-resolution runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,448End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts for Munich on September 21 point to a daily maximum of 16–17 °C under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds and a chance of light showers.** This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes (37 % for 17 °C, 28 % for 16 °C), while 18 °C remains competitive at 27.5 %. Cooler-than-average conditions stem from a post-frontal regime: northwest flow advects maritime air, and persistent cloud cover reduces solar heating compared with the September climatological high of roughly 19 °C. Model consensus (DWD, ECMWF, GFS runs) shows limited diurnal warming, with afternoon peaks held down by the marine layer and any scattered precipitation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between modest model spread—some guidance edges toward 18 °C if clouds break earlier, others cap at 16 °C with steadier showers—against the strong signal for suppressed temperatures. New high-resolution runs and observational updates over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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