Forecast models from sources including DWD and GFS indicate Munich’s overnight low on September 21 will likely fall between 8–11 °C under northwest winds and increasing cloud cover, with limited radiative cooling after a mild Sunday. Ensemble spreads show some runs dipping toward 7 °C or lower if skies clear earlier, while others hold near 11–12 °C amid light rain and higher dew points. This narrow range and model disagreement sustain nearly equal market-implied odds around the 7 °C threshold versus mid-teens levels, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of the daily minimum and boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 9.4 °C provide context, but current synoptic steering patterns dominate short-term resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 21?
7°C or below 96%
14°C 93%
11°C 90%
10°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
96%
8°C
40%
9°C
23%
10°C
87%
11°C
90%
12°C
38%
13°C
38%
14°C
93%
15°C
13%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
2%
7°C or below 96%
14°C 93%
11°C 90%
10°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
23%
10°C
$0 Vol.
87%
11°C
$0 Vol.
90%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
93%
15°C
$0 Vol.
13%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including DWD and GFS indicate Munich’s overnight low on September 21 will likely fall between 8–11 °C under northwest winds and increasing cloud cover, with limited radiative cooling after a mild Sunday. Ensemble spreads show some runs dipping toward 7 °C or lower if skies clear earlier, while others hold near 11–12 °C amid light rain and higher dew points. This narrow range and model disagreement sustain nearly equal market-implied odds around the 7 °C threshold versus mid-teens levels, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of the daily minimum and boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 9.4 °C provide context, but current synoptic steering patterns dominate short-term resolution risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including DWD and GFS indicate Munich’s overnight low on September 21 will likely fall between 8–11 °C under northwest winds and increasing cloud cover, with limited radiative cooling after a mild Sunday. Ensemble spreads show some runs dipping toward 7 °C or lower if skies clear earlier, while others hold near 11–12 °C amid light rain and higher dew points. This narrow range and model disagreement sustain nearly equal market-implied odds around the 7 °C threshold versus mid-teens levels, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of the daily minimum and boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 9.4 °C provide context, but current synoptic steering patterns dominate short-term resolution risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including DWD and GFS indicate Munich’s overnight low on September 21 will likely fall between 8–11 °C under northwest winds and increasing cloud cover, with limited radiative cooling after a mild Sunday. Ensemble spreads show some runs dipping toward 7 °C or lower if skies clear earlier, while others hold near 11–12 °C amid light rain and higher dew points. This narrow range and model disagreement sustain nearly equal market-implied odds around the 7 °C threshold versus mid-teens levels, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of the daily minimum and boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 9.4 °C provide context, but current synoptic steering patterns dominate short-term resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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