Current short-range model runs place Warsaw’s September 22 maximum between 14–17 °C, with ensemble spreads centered on 15–16 °C under a northwest flow, widespread cloud cover, and light rain that limits daytime heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates show modest warming aloft offset by persistent low-level moisture and reduced insolation near the autumnal equinox, keeping values close to late-September climatology. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to 16 °C and 17 °C, with lower probabilities on 15 °C or 18 °C reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearing. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours will determine whether the highest temperature settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 22?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 22?
16°C 42%
17°C 35%
15°C 30%
18°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
11°C or below
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
5%
14°C
8%
15°C
30%
16°C
42%
17°C
35%
18°C
21%
19°C
5%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
4%
16°C 42%
17°C 35%
15°C 30%
18°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
4%
13°C
$4 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$48 Vol.
42%
17°C
$1,103 Vol.
35%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model runs place Warsaw’s September 22 maximum between 14–17 °C, with ensemble spreads centered on 15–16 °C under a northwest flow, widespread cloud cover, and light rain that limits daytime heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates show modest warming aloft offset by persistent low-level moisture and reduced insolation near the autumnal equinox, keeping values close to late-September climatology. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to 16 °C and 17 °C, with lower probabilities on 15 °C or 18 °C reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearing. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours will determine whether the highest temperature settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,155End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model runs place Warsaw’s September 22 maximum between 14–17 °C, with ensemble spreads centered on 15–16 °C under a northwest flow, widespread cloud cover, and light rain that limits daytime heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates show modest warming aloft offset by persistent low-level moisture and reduced insolation near the autumnal equinox, keeping values close to late-September climatology. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to 16 °C and 17 °C, with lower probabilities on 15 °C or 18 °C reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearing. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours will determine whether the highest temperature settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,155End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range model runs place Warsaw’s September 22 maximum between 14–17 °C, with ensemble spreads centered on 15–16 °C under a northwest flow, widespread cloud cover, and light rain that limits daytime heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates show modest warming aloft offset by persistent low-level moisture and reduced insolation near the autumnal equinox, keeping values close to late-September climatology. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to 16 °C and 17 °C, with lower probabilities on 15 °C or 18 °C reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearing. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours will determine whether the highest temperature settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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