**Current National Weather Service and model consensus for Miami points to overnight lows in the upper 70s°F on September 21–22, driven by persistent southerly flow, high atmospheric moisture, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling.** Typical September climatology features average lows near 76–77°F, with the all-time record low of 66°F occurring decades ago under rare cool-air intrusions. Recent observations and short-range guidance show no approaching cold front or significant wind shift that would support a drop into the 60s; instead, dew points remain elevated in the mid-70s, sustaining warm nighttime temperatures. Traders appear to be pricing substantial uncertainty around potential heavier rainfall or localized cooling effects, elevating the implied probability for 69°F or below despite the strong warm bias in official forecasts. Updated NWS Miami briefings and next model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 22?
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
72-73°F 37%
70-71°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
69°F or below
11%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
37%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
72-73°F 37%
70-71°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
11%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
19%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
37%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
11%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and model consensus for Miami points to overnight lows in the upper 70s°F on September 21–22, driven by persistent southerly flow, high atmospheric moisture, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling.**
Typical September climatology features average lows near 76–77°F, with the all-time record low of 66°F occurring decades ago under rare cool-air intrusions. Recent observations and short-range guidance show no approaching cold front or significant wind shift that would support a drop into the 60s; instead, dew points remain elevated in the mid-70s, sustaining warm nighttime temperatures. Traders appear to be pricing substantial uncertainty around potential heavier rainfall or localized cooling effects, elevating the implied probability for 69°F or below despite the strong warm bias in official forecasts. Updated NWS Miami briefings and next model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and model consensus for Miami points to overnight lows in the upper 70s°F on September 21–22, driven by persistent southerly flow, high atmospheric moisture, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling.**
Typical September climatology features average lows near 76–77°F, with the all-time record low of 66°F occurring decades ago under rare cool-air intrusions. Recent observations and short-range guidance show no approaching cold front or significant wind shift that would support a drop into the 60s; instead, dew points remain elevated in the mid-70s, sustaining warm nighttime temperatures. Traders appear to be pricing substantial uncertainty around potential heavier rainfall or localized cooling effects, elevating the implied probability for 69°F or below despite the strong warm bias in official forecasts. Updated NWS Miami briefings and next model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current National Weather Service and model consensus for Miami points to overnight lows in the upper 70s°F on September 21–22, driven by persistent southerly flow, high atmospheric moisture, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling.** Typical September climatology features average lows near 76–77°F, with the all-time record low of 66°F occurring decades ago under rare cool-air intrusions. Recent observations and short-range guidance show no approaching cold front or significant wind shift that would support a drop into the 60s; instead, dew points remain elevated in the mid-70s, sustaining warm nighttime temperatures. Traders appear to be pricing substantial uncertainty around potential heavier rainfall or localized cooling effects, elevating the implied probability for 69°F or below despite the strong warm bias in official forecasts. Updated NWS Miami briefings and next model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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