**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources show persistent tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating in Miami on September 22, keeping highs primarily in the upper 80s.** South winds around 5-10 mph, high humidity near 80 percent, and cloud cover from an upper-level low are the main factors capping temperatures, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 86-89°F ranges. These conditions align with seasonal norms where afternoon convection often prevents extremes, though exact highs depend on storm timing and coverage. Historical September 22 averages near 89°F provide context, but the current setup favors moderation over the 90°F+ outcomes priced lower. Updated National Hurricane Center and local NWS briefings on model consensus will be key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 22?
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 24%
90-91°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
75°F or below
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
35%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
34%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
6%
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 24%
90-91°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
35%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
24%
88-89°F
$258 Vol.
34%
90-91°F
$227 Vol.
19%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
7%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources show persistent tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating in Miami on September 22, keeping highs primarily in the upper 80s.** South winds around 5-10 mph, high humidity near 80 percent, and cloud cover from an upper-level low are the main factors capping temperatures, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 86-89°F ranges. These conditions align with seasonal norms where afternoon convection often prevents extremes, though exact highs depend on storm timing and coverage. Historical September 22 averages near 89°F provide context, but the current setup favors moderation over the 90°F+ outcomes priced lower. Updated National Hurricane Center and local NWS briefings on model consensus will be key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$485End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources show persistent tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating in Miami on September 22, keeping highs primarily in the upper 80s.** South winds around 5-10 mph, high humidity near 80 percent, and cloud cover from an upper-level low are the main factors capping temperatures, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 86-89°F ranges. These conditions align with seasonal norms where afternoon convection often prevents extremes, though exact highs depend on storm timing and coverage. Historical September 22 averages near 89°F provide context, but the current setup favors moderation over the 90°F+ outcomes priced lower. Updated National Hurricane Center and local NWS briefings on model consensus will be key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$485End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources show persistent tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating in Miami on September 22, keeping highs primarily in the upper 80s.** South winds around 5-10 mph, high humidity near 80 percent, and cloud cover from an upper-level low are the main factors capping temperatures, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 86-89°F ranges. These conditions align with seasonal norms where afternoon convection often prevents extremes, though exact highs depend on storm timing and coverage. Historical September 22 averages near 89°F provide context, but the current setup favors moderation over the 90°F+ outcomes priced lower. Updated National Hurricane Center and local NWS briefings on model consensus will be key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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