Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show considerable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 22, with some guidance favoring 14–16°C under persistent cloud cover and rain while others indicate potential for clearer skies allowing 18°C or higher. Elevated atmospheric moisture from an unusually wet September—driven by Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies and advancing El Niño conditions—has reduced diurnal temperature ranges through enhanced cloudiness and reduced radiational cooling. Historical September lows average near 12–14°C, yet current steering patterns and model consensus remain sensitive to the timing of any frontal passage. Traders appear divided because the next 12–24 hours of updated high-resolution guidance from regional meteorological centers could resolve whether the minimum falls into the cooler or milder cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
24°C or higher 93%
14°C or below 92%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
92%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
23%
18°C
39%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C or higher
93%
24°C or higher 93%
14°C or below 92%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show considerable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 22, with some guidance favoring 14–16°C under persistent cloud cover and rain while others indicate potential for clearer skies allowing 18°C or higher. Elevated atmospheric moisture from an unusually wet September—driven by Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies and advancing El Niño conditions—has reduced diurnal temperature ranges through enhanced cloudiness and reduced radiational cooling. Historical September lows average near 12–14°C, yet current steering patterns and model consensus remain sensitive to the timing of any frontal passage. Traders appear divided because the next 12–24 hours of updated high-resolution guidance from regional meteorological centers could resolve whether the minimum falls into the cooler or milder cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show considerable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 22, with some guidance favoring 14–16°C under persistent cloud cover and rain while others indicate potential for clearer skies allowing 18°C or higher. Elevated atmospheric moisture from an unusually wet September—driven by Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies and advancing El Niño conditions—has reduced diurnal temperature ranges through enhanced cloudiness and reduced radiational cooling. Historical September lows average near 12–14°C, yet current steering patterns and model consensus remain sensitive to the timing of any frontal passage. Traders appear divided because the next 12–24 hours of updated high-resolution guidance from regional meteorological centers could resolve whether the minimum falls into the cooler or milder cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show considerable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 22, with some guidance favoring 14–16°C under persistent cloud cover and rain while others indicate potential for clearer skies allowing 18°C or higher. Elevated atmospheric moisture from an unusually wet September—driven by Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies and advancing El Niño conditions—has reduced diurnal temperature ranges through enhanced cloudiness and reduced radiational cooling. Historical September lows average near 12–14°C, yet current steering patterns and model consensus remain sensitive to the timing of any frontal passage. Traders appear divided because the next 12–24 hours of updated high-resolution guidance from regional meteorological centers could resolve whether the minimum falls into the cooler or milder cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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