**Forecast models indicate a mid-week weather system will bring rain, clouds, and northerly flow to Istanbul on September 23, suppressing daytime highs into the 17–20°C range.** Current conditions on September 21 show warmer, mostly sunny weather near 25–27°C, but a cooling trend begins Tuesday with showers, setting up Wednesday’s expected overcast skies, moderate to heavy precipitation, and winds that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance from sources like the GFS and regional models clusters the daily maximum around 17–19°C, aligning with the market’s tight distribution where 17°C leads at 28% implied probability. Key variables include exact rainfall timing and wind strength, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C; updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of resolution will refine these details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
17°C 40%
18°C 27%
16°C 24%
19°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
12°C or below
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
4%
15°C
2%
16°C
24%
17°C
32%
18°C
27%
19°C
18%
20°C
6%
21°C
7%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 40%
18°C 27%
16°C 24%
19°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
13°C
$5 Vol.
4%
14°C
$5 Vol.
4%
15°C
$5 Vol.
2%
16°C
$5 Vol.
24%
17°C
$10 Vol.
32%
18°C
$5 Vol.
27%
19°C
$5 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C
$55 Vol.
7%
22°C or higher
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a mid-week weather system will bring rain, clouds, and northerly flow to Istanbul on September 23, suppressing daytime highs into the 17–20°C range.** Current conditions on September 21 show warmer, mostly sunny weather near 25–27°C, but a cooling trend begins Tuesday with showers, setting up Wednesday’s expected overcast skies, moderate to heavy precipitation, and winds that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance from sources like the GFS and regional models clusters the daily maximum around 17–19°C, aligning with the market’s tight distribution where 17°C leads at 28% implied probability. Key variables include exact rainfall timing and wind strength, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C; updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of resolution will refine these details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a mid-week weather system will bring rain, clouds, and northerly flow to Istanbul on September 23, suppressing daytime highs into the 17–20°C range.** Current conditions on September 21 show warmer, mostly sunny weather near 25–27°C, but a cooling trend begins Tuesday with showers, setting up Wednesday’s expected overcast skies, moderate to heavy precipitation, and winds that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance from sources like the GFS and regional models clusters the daily maximum around 17–19°C, aligning with the market’s tight distribution where 17°C leads at 28% implied probability. Key variables include exact rainfall timing and wind strength, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C; updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of resolution will refine these details.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a mid-week weather system will bring rain, clouds, and northerly flow to Istanbul on September 23, suppressing daytime highs into the 17–20°C range.** Current conditions on September 21 show warmer, mostly sunny weather near 25–27°C, but a cooling trend begins Tuesday with showers, setting up Wednesday’s expected overcast skies, moderate to heavy precipitation, and winds that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance from sources like the GFS and regional models clusters the daily maximum around 17–19°C, aligning with the market’s tight distribution where 17°C leads at 28% implied probability. Key variables include exact rainfall timing and wind strength, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C; updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings ahead of resolution will refine these details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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