Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk supporting a daytime maximum near 25°C. This positions 25°C and 24°C as the closest market outcomes, differentiated by subtle variables such as peak solar insolation timing, exact wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and minor variations in low-level humidity that influence surface heating rates. Updated runs show consistency in the mid-20s range without significant model spread, though small forecast adjustments from observational data in the next 48 hours could shift the implied probabilities between these adjacent thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
25°C 49%
24°C 47%
26°C 8%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C
7%
24°C
47%
25°C
49%
26°C
8%
27°C
5%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 49%
24°C 47%
26°C 8%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
3%
22°C
$44 Vol.
6%
23°C
$135 Vol.
7%
24°C
$373 Vol.
47%
25°C
$178 Vol.
49%
26°C
$44 Vol.
8%
27°C
$39 Vol.
5%
28°C
$44 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk supporting a daytime maximum near 25°C. This positions 25°C and 24°C as the closest market outcomes, differentiated by subtle variables such as peak solar insolation timing, exact wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and minor variations in low-level humidity that influence surface heating rates. Updated runs show consistency in the mid-20s range without significant model spread, though small forecast adjustments from observational data in the next 48 hours could shift the implied probabilities between these adjacent thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,008End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk supporting a daytime maximum near 25°C. This positions 25°C and 24°C as the closest market outcomes, differentiated by subtle variables such as peak solar insolation timing, exact wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and minor variations in low-level humidity that influence surface heating rates. Updated runs show consistency in the mid-20s range without significant model spread, though small forecast adjustments from observational data in the next 48 hours could shift the implied probabilities between these adjacent thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,008End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk supporting a daytime maximum near 25°C. This positions 25°C and 24°C as the closest market outcomes, differentiated by subtle variables such as peak solar insolation timing, exact wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and minor variations in low-level humidity that influence surface heating rates. Updated runs show consistency in the mid-20s range without significant model spread, though small forecast adjustments from observational data in the next 48 hours could shift the implied probabilities between these adjacent thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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