Recent forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international sources indicate a northerly airflow and approaching frontal system will bring cooler maritime air and scattered showers or rain to Istanbul on September 22, suppressing daytime highs to the 20–22°C range. This follows warmer, mostly clear conditions around 25–27°C on September 20–21. The strong market-implied probability for a 21°C peak reflects broad model consensus on this cooling trend, typical for late-September transitions, while lower odds for 19°C or 23°C+ capture uncertainty in exact timing of precipitation and cloud cover that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these estimates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
21°C 65%
20°C 17%
22°C 11%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
4%
18°C
7%
19°C
8%
20°C
17%
21°C
65%
22°C
11%
23°C
8%
24°C
8%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
2%
21°C 65%
20°C 17%
22°C 11%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$20 Vol.
8%
20°C
$80 Vol.
17%
21°C
$144 Vol.
65%
22°C
$20 Vol.
11%
23°C
$20 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international sources indicate a northerly airflow and approaching frontal system will bring cooler maritime air and scattered showers or rain to Istanbul on September 22, suppressing daytime highs to the 20–22°C range. This follows warmer, mostly clear conditions around 25–27°C on September 20–21. The strong market-implied probability for a 21°C peak reflects broad model consensus on this cooling trend, typical for late-September transitions, while lower odds for 19°C or 23°C+ capture uncertainty in exact timing of precipitation and cloud cover that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these estimates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$284End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international sources indicate a northerly airflow and approaching frontal system will bring cooler maritime air and scattered showers or rain to Istanbul on September 22, suppressing daytime highs to the 20–22°C range. This follows warmer, mostly clear conditions around 25–27°C on September 20–21. The strong market-implied probability for a 21°C peak reflects broad model consensus on this cooling trend, typical for late-September transitions, while lower odds for 19°C or 23°C+ capture uncertainty in exact timing of precipitation and cloud cover that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these estimates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$284End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international sources indicate a northerly airflow and approaching frontal system will bring cooler maritime air and scattered showers or rain to Istanbul on September 22, suppressing daytime highs to the 20–22°C range. This follows warmer, mostly clear conditions around 25–27°C on September 20–21. The strong market-implied probability for a 21°C peak reflects broad model consensus on this cooling trend, typical for late-September transitions, while lower odds for 19°C or 23°C+ capture uncertainty in exact timing of precipitation and cloud cover that could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these estimates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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