Recent forecast model runs highlight substantial uncertainty in Istanbul’s overnight minimum temperature for September 22, driven by variable cloud cover, wind direction shifts from the Black Sea, and possible northerly advection. Ensemble guidance from major centers shows spreads that place the outcome near the boundaries of the 10°C or below and 20°C or higher bins, consistent with the market’s near-even implied probabilities. Late-September climatology places typical lows around 15–17°C, but short-term sensitivity to radiative cooling under clear skies versus warmer maritime influence creates the observed trader split. New model cycles and observational updates expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 22?
10°C or below 100%
20°C or higher 98%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
100%
11°C
18%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
98%
10°C or below 100%
20°C or higher 98%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
11°C
$0 Vol.
18%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight substantial uncertainty in Istanbul’s overnight minimum temperature for September 22, driven by variable cloud cover, wind direction shifts from the Black Sea, and possible northerly advection. Ensemble guidance from major centers shows spreads that place the outcome near the boundaries of the 10°C or below and 20°C or higher bins, consistent with the market’s near-even implied probabilities. Late-September climatology places typical lows around 15–17°C, but short-term sensitivity to radiative cooling under clear skies versus warmer maritime influence creates the observed trader split. New model cycles and observational updates expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight substantial uncertainty in Istanbul’s overnight minimum temperature for September 22, driven by variable cloud cover, wind direction shifts from the Black Sea, and possible northerly advection. Ensemble guidance from major centers shows spreads that place the outcome near the boundaries of the 10°C or below and 20°C or higher bins, consistent with the market’s near-even implied probabilities. Late-September climatology places typical lows around 15–17°C, but short-term sensitivity to radiative cooling under clear skies versus warmer maritime influence creates the observed trader split. New model cycles and observational updates expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs highlight substantial uncertainty in Istanbul’s overnight minimum temperature for September 22, driven by variable cloud cover, wind direction shifts from the Black Sea, and possible northerly advection. Ensemble guidance from major centers shows spreads that place the outcome near the boundaries of the 10°C or below and 20°C or higher bins, consistent with the market’s near-even implied probabilities. Late-September climatology places typical lows around 15–17°C, but short-term sensitivity to radiative cooling under clear skies versus warmer maritime influence creates the observed trader split. New model cycles and observational updates expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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