Recent northwest winds and a cooling trend after early September warmth have positioned forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS to indicate a high near 16°C in Warsaw on September 23, with partly cloudy skies and light rain possible. This aligns with climatological norms for late September maxima around 16–18°C, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 20°C or higher as traders weigh potential model variability or brief warm advection against the dominant cooler pattern. Lower-temperature outcomes cluster near 20% amid uncertainty in exact peak timing, while sub-13°C results remain minimal given the absence of strong cold-air outbreaks in current guidance. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
20°C or higher 46%
16°C 40%
15°C 32%
17°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
3%
11°C
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
6%
14°C
20%
15°C
32%
16°C
40%
17°C
26%
18°C
22%
19°C
17%
20°C or higher
46%
20°C or higher 46%
16°C 40%
15°C 32%
17°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
11°C
$5 Vol.
4%
12°C
$5 Vol.
4%
13°C
$5 Vol.
6%
14°C
$5 Vol.
20%
15°C
$5 Vol.
32%
16°C
$8 Vol.
40%
17°C
$10 Vol.
26%
18°C
$5 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C or higher
$5 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest winds and a cooling trend after early September warmth have positioned forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS to indicate a high near 16°C in Warsaw on September 23, with partly cloudy skies and light rain possible. This aligns with climatological norms for late September maxima around 16–18°C, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 20°C or higher as traders weigh potential model variability or brief warm advection against the dominant cooler pattern. Lower-temperature outcomes cluster near 20% amid uncertainty in exact peak timing, while sub-13°C results remain minimal given the absence of strong cold-air outbreaks in current guidance. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest winds and a cooling trend after early September warmth have positioned forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS to indicate a high near 16°C in Warsaw on September 23, with partly cloudy skies and light rain possible. This aligns with climatological norms for late September maxima around 16–18°C, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 20°C or higher as traders weigh potential model variability or brief warm advection against the dominant cooler pattern. Lower-temperature outcomes cluster near 20% amid uncertainty in exact peak timing, while sub-13°C results remain minimal given the absence of strong cold-air outbreaks in current guidance. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northwest winds and a cooling trend after early September warmth have positioned forecast models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS to indicate a high near 16°C in Warsaw on September 23, with partly cloudy skies and light rain possible. This aligns with climatological norms for late September maxima around 16–18°C, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 20°C or higher as traders weigh potential model variability or brief warm advection against the dominant cooler pattern. Lower-temperature outcomes cluster near 20% amid uncertainty in exact peak timing, while sub-13°C results remain minimal given the absence of strong cold-air outbreaks in current guidance. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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