Forecast models from sources including GFS and European centers show a high near 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by a westerly flow of cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with widespread cloud cover and showers that limit daytime heating. Current conditions feature highs around 20–22°C under partly sunny skies, but a cooling trend is underway as winds strengthen from the west and rain chances rise sharply by Monday. Historical September averages near 16°C provide context, yet the active pattern favors the lower end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 15°C versus 30.5% for 14°C and 24% for 16°C, aligns with this stable forecast signal ahead of final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
15°C 44%
14°C 30%
16°C 25%
13°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
30%
15°C
44%
16°C
25%
17°C
5%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 44%
14°C 30%
16°C 25%
13°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$31 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$173 Vol.
5%
14°C
$427 Vol.
30%
15°C
$729 Vol.
44%
16°C
$1,845 Vol.
25%
17°C
$181 Vol.
5%
18°C
$200 Vol.
2%
19°C
$31 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS and European centers show a high near 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by a westerly flow of cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with widespread cloud cover and showers that limit daytime heating. Current conditions feature highs around 20–22°C under partly sunny skies, but a cooling trend is underway as winds strengthen from the west and rain chances rise sharply by Monday. Historical September averages near 16°C provide context, yet the active pattern favors the lower end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 15°C versus 30.5% for 14°C and 24% for 16°C, aligns with this stable forecast signal ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,071End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS and European centers show a high near 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by a westerly flow of cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with widespread cloud cover and showers that limit daytime heating. Current conditions feature highs around 20–22°C under partly sunny skies, but a cooling trend is underway as winds strengthen from the west and rain chances rise sharply by Monday. Historical September averages near 16°C provide context, yet the active pattern favors the lower end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 15°C versus 30.5% for 14°C and 24% for 16°C, aligns with this stable forecast signal ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,071End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including GFS and European centers show a high near 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by a westerly flow of cooler maritime air behind a frontal system, combined with widespread cloud cover and showers that limit daytime heating. Current conditions feature highs around 20–22°C under partly sunny skies, but a cooling trend is underway as winds strengthen from the west and rain chances rise sharply by Monday. Historical September averages near 16°C provide context, yet the active pattern favors the lower end of the range. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 15°C versus 30.5% for 14°C and 24% for 16°C, aligns with this stable forecast signal ahead of final model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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