Recent forecasts from European meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 23 will likely fall near 10°C, aligning with the late-September climatological average of 9–11°C as seasonal cooling accelerates after the autumnal equinox. Primary drivers include radiative heat loss under variable cloud cover, advection of cooler maritime air from the northwest, and light winds that permit surface cooling without strong mixing. The tight 50% market split between sub-4°C and 14°C+ extremes reflects model divergence on cloud persistence and frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 8–13°C capture the realistic range of uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
4°C or below 100%
14°C or higher 100%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
4°C or below
100%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C or higher
100%
4°C or below 100%
14°C or higher 100%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 23 will likely fall near 10°C, aligning with the late-September climatological average of 9–11°C as seasonal cooling accelerates after the autumnal equinox. Primary drivers include radiative heat loss under variable cloud cover, advection of cooler maritime air from the northwest, and light winds that permit surface cooling without strong mixing. The tight 50% market split between sub-4°C and 14°C+ extremes reflects model divergence on cloud persistence and frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 8–13°C capture the realistic range of uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 23 will likely fall near 10°C, aligning with the late-September climatological average of 9–11°C as seasonal cooling accelerates after the autumnal equinox. Primary drivers include radiative heat loss under variable cloud cover, advection of cooler maritime air from the northwest, and light winds that permit surface cooling without strong mixing. The tight 50% market split between sub-4°C and 14°C+ extremes reflects model divergence on cloud persistence and frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 8–13°C capture the realistic range of uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from European meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 23 will likely fall near 10°C, aligning with the late-September climatological average of 9–11°C as seasonal cooling accelerates after the autumnal equinox. Primary drivers include radiative heat loss under variable cloud cover, advection of cooler maritime air from the northwest, and light winds that permit surface cooling without strong mixing. The tight 50% market split between sub-4°C and 14°C+ extremes reflects model divergence on cloud persistence and frontal timing, while the clustered probabilities around 8–13°C capture the realistic range of uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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