Recent warmth across the Yellow Sea region, with daytime highs reaching 29–31°C in Qingdao on September 20–22 under southerly flow and limited cloud cover, underpins the 52% market-implied probability for a 30°C peak on the 23rd. Ensemble forecasts show modest cooling from an approaching frontal system, yet model spreads and coastal urban heat retention keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant at combined 97% implied odds. Historical September averages near 26°C provide context, while official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the daily maximum against resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these near-term dynamics ahead of the final 48-hour model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
30°C 51%
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
18%
28°C
17%
29°C
22%
30°C
51%
31°C or higher
16%
30°C 51%
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
3%
25°C
$5 Vol.
4%
26°C
$5 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
18%
28°C
$5 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
22%
30°C
$105 Vol.
51%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent warmth across the Yellow Sea region, with daytime highs reaching 29–31°C in Qingdao on September 20–22 under southerly flow and limited cloud cover, underpins the 52% market-implied probability for a 30°C peak on the 23rd. Ensemble forecasts show modest cooling from an approaching frontal system, yet model spreads and coastal urban heat retention keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant at combined 97% implied odds. Historical September averages near 26°C provide context, while official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the daily maximum against resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these near-term dynamics ahead of the final 48-hour model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$140End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent warmth across the Yellow Sea region, with daytime highs reaching 29–31°C in Qingdao on September 20–22 under southerly flow and limited cloud cover, underpins the 52% market-implied probability for a 30°C peak on the 23rd. Ensemble forecasts show modest cooling from an approaching frontal system, yet model spreads and coastal urban heat retention keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant at combined 97% implied odds. Historical September averages near 26°C provide context, while official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the daily maximum against resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these near-term dynamics ahead of the final 48-hour model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$140End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent warmth across the Yellow Sea region, with daytime highs reaching 29–31°C in Qingdao on September 20–22 under southerly flow and limited cloud cover, underpins the 52% market-implied probability for a 30°C peak on the 23rd. Ensemble forecasts show modest cooling from an approaching frontal system, yet model spreads and coastal urban heat retention keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant at combined 97% implied odds. Historical September averages near 26°C provide context, while official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the daily maximum against resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these near-term dynamics ahead of the final 48-hour model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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