Recent model consensus from regional and global forecasts supports mostly sunny conditions in Beijing on September 21 under light southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to reach 29–31°C depending on exact insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights 29°C, while some international runs allow for a peak near 30–31°C amid minimal cloud cover and stable high pressure. These small differences in projected maximums explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30°C and 31°C versus 29°C. Updated model outputs and agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
30°C 35%
31°C 34%
29°C 22%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
6%
29°C
22%
30°C
35%
31°C
34%
32°C
9%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 35%
31°C 34%
29°C 22%
32°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$316 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$291 Vol.
1%
27°C
$268 Vol.
4%
28°C
$302 Vol.
6%
29°C
$191 Vol.
22%
30°C
$157 Vol.
35%
31°C
$2,265 Vol.
34%
32°C
$259 Vol.
9%
33°C
$37 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from regional and global forecasts supports mostly sunny conditions in Beijing on September 21 under light southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to reach 29–31°C depending on exact insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights 29°C, while some international runs allow for a peak near 30–31°C amid minimal cloud cover and stable high pressure. These small differences in projected maximums explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30°C and 31°C versus 29°C. Updated model outputs and agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,506End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from regional and global forecasts supports mostly sunny conditions in Beijing on September 21 under light southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to reach 29–31°C depending on exact insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights 29°C, while some international runs allow for a peak near 30–31°C amid minimal cloud cover and stable high pressure. These small differences in projected maximums explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30°C and 31°C versus 29°C. Updated model outputs and agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,506End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from regional and global forecasts supports mostly sunny conditions in Beijing on September 21 under light southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to reach 29–31°C depending on exact insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance highlights 29°C, while some international runs allow for a peak near 30–31°C amid minimal cloud cover and stable high pressure. These small differences in projected maximums explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30°C and 31°C versus 29°C. Updated model outputs and agency briefings in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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