Ongoing Huaxi autumn rain has established persistent cloud cover and light precipitation over Chengdu, suppressing daytime solar heating and capping highs near 25–26°C for September 23. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and multiple models indicate scattered to moderate rain with highs of 23–26°C, consistent with historical late-September averages around 25°C under similar synoptic patterns. Differentiating outcomes hinge on exact rainfall timing and intensity—stronger or prolonged showers favor the 25°C or lower cluster by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation, while any temporary clearing could allow brief warming toward 27°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty range, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and expected official updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
29°C 34%
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
26°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
19%
26°C
20%
27°C
25%
28°C
18%
29°C
34%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
26°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$16 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
17%
23°C
$5 Vol.
17%
24°C
$5 Vol.
18%
25°C
$15 Vol.
19%
26°C
$5 Vol.
20%
27°C
$5 Vol.
25%
28°C
$5 Vol.
18%
29°C
$5 Vol.
34%
30°C
$115 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing Huaxi autumn rain has established persistent cloud cover and light precipitation over Chengdu, suppressing daytime solar heating and capping highs near 25–26°C for September 23. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and multiple models indicate scattered to moderate rain with highs of 23–26°C, consistent with historical late-September averages around 25°C under similar synoptic patterns. Differentiating outcomes hinge on exact rainfall timing and intensity—stronger or prolonged showers favor the 25°C or lower cluster by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation, while any temporary clearing could allow brief warming toward 27°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty range, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and expected official updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$197End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing Huaxi autumn rain has established persistent cloud cover and light precipitation over Chengdu, suppressing daytime solar heating and capping highs near 25–26°C for September 23. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and multiple models indicate scattered to moderate rain with highs of 23–26°C, consistent with historical late-September averages around 25°C under similar synoptic patterns. Differentiating outcomes hinge on exact rainfall timing and intensity—stronger or prolonged showers favor the 25°C or lower cluster by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation, while any temporary clearing could allow brief warming toward 27°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty range, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and expected official updates ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$197End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Huaxi autumn rain has established persistent cloud cover and light precipitation over Chengdu, suppressing daytime solar heating and capping highs near 25–26°C for September 23. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and multiple models indicate scattered to moderate rain with highs of 23–26°C, consistent with historical late-September averages around 25°C under similar synoptic patterns. Differentiating outcomes hinge on exact rainfall timing and intensity—stronger or prolonged showers favor the 25°C or lower cluster by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing insolation, while any temporary clearing could allow brief warming toward 27°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty range, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and expected official updates ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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