**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s September 21 high clusters tightly around 27–29 °C because official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on 27–28 °C under persistent Hua Xi autumn rain conditions.** Widespread cloud cover and scattered light rain or drizzle, driven by the stable subtropical high and enhanced moisture transport, are expected to limit daytime heating while light winds and high humidity keep the boundary layer capped. Recent model runs show only modest differences in cloud breaks that could briefly allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 29–30 °C, versus more continuous overcast that would hold the maximum near 27 °C. Historical September normals (roughly 25–28 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions or clear-sky episodes reinforce this narrow range, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the middle outcomes while assigning lower weight to outliers above 30 °C or below 26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 21?
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 19%
30°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
4%
25°C
5%
26°C
9%
27°C
19%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C
18%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 19%
30°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
24°C or below
$153 Vol.
4%
25°C
$92 Vol.
5%
26°C
$83 Vol.
9%
27°C
$183 Vol.
19%
28°C
$330 Vol.
27%
29°C
$304 Vol.
26%
30°C
$1,021 Vol.
18%
31°C
$670 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s September 21 high clusters tightly around 27–29 °C because official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on 27–28 °C under persistent Hua Xi autumn rain conditions.**
Widespread cloud cover and scattered light rain or drizzle, driven by the stable subtropical high and enhanced moisture transport, are expected to limit daytime heating while light winds and high humidity keep the boundary layer capped. Recent model runs show only modest differences in cloud breaks that could briefly allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 29–30 °C, versus more continuous overcast that would hold the maximum near 27 °C. Historical September normals (roughly 25–28 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions or clear-sky episodes reinforce this narrow range, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the middle outcomes while assigning lower weight to outliers above 30 °C or below 26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,947End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s September 21 high clusters tightly around 27–29 °C because official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on 27–28 °C under persistent Hua Xi autumn rain conditions.**
Widespread cloud cover and scattered light rain or drizzle, driven by the stable subtropical high and enhanced moisture transport, are expected to limit daytime heating while light winds and high humidity keep the boundary layer capped. Recent model runs show only modest differences in cloud breaks that could briefly allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 29–30 °C, versus more continuous overcast that would hold the maximum near 27 °C. Historical September normals (roughly 25–28 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions or clear-sky episodes reinforce this narrow range, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the middle outcomes while assigning lower weight to outliers above 30 °C or below 26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,947End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s September 21 high clusters tightly around 27–29 °C because official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models converge on 27–28 °C under persistent Hua Xi autumn rain conditions.** Widespread cloud cover and scattered light rain or drizzle, driven by the stable subtropical high and enhanced moisture transport, are expected to limit daytime heating while light winds and high humidity keep the boundary layer capped. Recent model runs show only modest differences in cloud breaks that could briefly allow stronger insolation and push readings toward 29–30 °C, versus more continuous overcast that would hold the maximum near 27 °C. Historical September normals (roughly 25–28 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air intrusions or clear-sky episodes reinforce this narrow range, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the middle outcomes while assigning lower weight to outliers above 30 °C or below 26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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