Recent GFS and ensemble model runs point to a minimum temperature near 10°C for Toronto on September 22, supported by northeasterly advection of cooler, drier air behind a departing frontal system and building high pressure that favors partial clearing and modest radiative cooling overnight. Persistent 15–25 km/h northeast winds should limit extreme surface cooling, while daytime mixing keeps afternoon readings in the mid-teens Celsius. Historical late-September normals place the average low around 12–13°C, so the current cooler anomaly explains why market-implied odds split nearly evenly between sub-3°C and 12°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance and Environment Canada short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range around the 9–11°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
2°C or below 97%
12°C or higher 97%
3°C 39%
4°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
97%
3°C
39%
4°C
39%
5°C
18%
6°C
18%
7°C
21%
8°C
21%
9°C
20%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C or higher
97%
2°C or below 97%
12°C or higher 97%
3°C 39%
4°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
$10 Vol.
97%
3°C
$10 Vol.
39%
4°C
$10 Vol.
39%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$0 Vol.
18%
7°C
$0 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C or higher
$10 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs point to a minimum temperature near 10°C for Toronto on September 22, supported by northeasterly advection of cooler, drier air behind a departing frontal system and building high pressure that favors partial clearing and modest radiative cooling overnight. Persistent 15–25 km/h northeast winds should limit extreme surface cooling, while daytime mixing keeps afternoon readings in the mid-teens Celsius. Historical late-September normals place the average low around 12–13°C, so the current cooler anomaly explains why market-implied odds split nearly evenly between sub-3°C and 12°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance and Environment Canada short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range around the 9–11°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs point to a minimum temperature near 10°C for Toronto on September 22, supported by northeasterly advection of cooler, drier air behind a departing frontal system and building high pressure that favors partial clearing and modest radiative cooling overnight. Persistent 15–25 km/h northeast winds should limit extreme surface cooling, while daytime mixing keeps afternoon readings in the mid-teens Celsius. Historical late-September normals place the average low around 12–13°C, so the current cooler anomaly explains why market-implied odds split nearly evenly between sub-3°C and 12°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance and Environment Canada short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range around the 9–11°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ensemble model runs point to a minimum temperature near 10°C for Toronto on September 22, supported by northeasterly advection of cooler, drier air behind a departing frontal system and building high pressure that favors partial clearing and modest radiative cooling overnight. Persistent 15–25 km/h northeast winds should limit extreme surface cooling, while daytime mixing keeps afternoon readings in the mid-teens Celsius. Historical late-September normals place the average low around 12–13°C, so the current cooler anomaly explains why market-implied odds split nearly evenly between sub-3°C and 12°C+ outcomes. Updated model guidance and Environment Canada short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range around the 9–11°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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