Recent forecast model consensus from global and regional meteorological agencies points to a maximum temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on September 22, reflecting the city's 2,240-meter elevation and typical late-September conditions at the end of the rainy season. Stable high-pressure influences and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger warming or cooling, keeping daily highs close to long-term September averages of 23–25°C. Traders have assigned 52.5% implied probability to exactly 26°C and 29.5% to 27°C or higher, consistent with slight upside potential if afternoon insolation increases. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Service of Mexico and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of the market's resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 22?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 22?
26°C 52%
27°C or higher 33%
25°C 13%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
7%
25°C
13%
26°C
52%
27°C or higher
33%
26°C 52%
27°C or higher 33%
25°C 13%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
18°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$13 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$57 Vol.
4%
24°C
$104 Vol.
7%
25°C
$72 Vol.
13%
26°C
$481 Vol.
52%
27°C or higher
$151 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from global and regional meteorological agencies points to a maximum temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on September 22, reflecting the city's 2,240-meter elevation and typical late-September conditions at the end of the rainy season. Stable high-pressure influences and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger warming or cooling, keeping daily highs close to long-term September averages of 23–25°C. Traders have assigned 52.5% implied probability to exactly 26°C and 29.5% to 27°C or higher, consistent with slight upside potential if afternoon insolation increases. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Service of Mexico and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of the market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$990End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from global and regional meteorological agencies points to a maximum temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on September 22, reflecting the city's 2,240-meter elevation and typical late-September conditions at the end of the rainy season. Stable high-pressure influences and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger warming or cooling, keeping daily highs close to long-term September averages of 23–25°C. Traders have assigned 52.5% implied probability to exactly 26°C and 29.5% to 27°C or higher, consistent with slight upside potential if afternoon insolation increases. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Service of Mexico and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of the market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$990End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from global and regional meteorological agencies points to a maximum temperature near 26°C in Mexico City on September 22, reflecting the city's 2,240-meter elevation and typical late-September conditions at the end of the rainy season. Stable high-pressure influences and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger warming or cooling, keeping daily highs close to long-term September averages of 23–25°C. Traders have assigned 52.5% implied probability to exactly 26°C and 29.5% to 27°C or higher, consistent with slight upside potential if afternoon insolation increases. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Service of Mexico and ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of the market's resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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