**Recent forecasts for Mexico City on September 23, 2026, show daytime highs centered on 23–26°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the upper end of that range.** Multiple models (including GEM and others) indicate a peak near or slightly above 25°C during afternoon hours, with some runs reaching 26°C under reduced cloud cover, while others cap lower due to persistent overcast skies and light rain or drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation (around 2,240 m) keeps seasonal September highs typically in the low-to-mid 20s°C, further moderated by the rainy season's frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, high humidity, and scattered precipitation chances (30–50% in many outlooks), which can suppress maximum temperatures if showers develop earlier in the day. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 33% for exactly 25°C, appears driven by warmer model consensus runs and the potential for brief clearing that allows stronger insolation. Lower-probability outcomes below 24°C receive minimal weight, consistent with the absence of strong cooling signals such as heavy widespread rain or unusual cold-air advection. Key upcoming factors include the next model runs and any shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could alter afternoon cloud timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
26°C or higher 53%
25°C 33%
24°C 14%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
14%
25°C
33%
26°C or higher
53%
26°C or higher 53%
25°C 33%
24°C 14%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
17°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
2%
22°C
$340 Vol.
2%
23°C
$282 Vol.
3%
24°C
$544 Vol.
14%
25°C
$363 Vol.
33%
26°C or higher
$541 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Mexico City on September 23, 2026, show daytime highs centered on 23–26°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the upper end of that range.** Multiple models (including GEM and others) indicate a peak near or slightly above 25°C during afternoon hours, with some runs reaching 26°C under reduced cloud cover, while others cap lower due to persistent overcast skies and light rain or drizzle.
Mexico City's high elevation (around 2,240 m) keeps seasonal September highs typically in the low-to-mid 20s°C, further moderated by the rainy season's frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, high humidity, and scattered precipitation chances (30–50% in many outlooks), which can suppress maximum temperatures if showers develop earlier in the day.
Trader sentiment, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 33% for exactly 25°C, appears driven by warmer model consensus runs and the potential for brief clearing that allows stronger insolation. Lower-probability outcomes below 24°C receive minimal weight, consistent with the absence of strong cooling signals such as heavy widespread rain or unusual cold-air advection. Key upcoming factors include the next model runs and any shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could alter afternoon cloud timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,194End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Mexico City on September 23, 2026, show daytime highs centered on 23–26°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the upper end of that range.** Multiple models (including GEM and others) indicate a peak near or slightly above 25°C during afternoon hours, with some runs reaching 26°C under reduced cloud cover, while others cap lower due to persistent overcast skies and light rain or drizzle.
Mexico City's high elevation (around 2,240 m) keeps seasonal September highs typically in the low-to-mid 20s°C, further moderated by the rainy season's frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, high humidity, and scattered precipitation chances (30–50% in many outlooks), which can suppress maximum temperatures if showers develop earlier in the day.
Trader sentiment, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 33% for exactly 25°C, appears driven by warmer model consensus runs and the potential for brief clearing that allows stronger insolation. Lower-probability outcomes below 24°C receive minimal weight, consistent with the absence of strong cooling signals such as heavy widespread rain or unusual cold-air advection. Key upcoming factors include the next model runs and any shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could alter afternoon cloud timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,194End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Mexico City on September 23, 2026, show daytime highs centered on 23–26°C, aligning with the market's emphasis on the upper end of that range.** Multiple models (including GEM and others) indicate a peak near or slightly above 25°C during afternoon hours, with some runs reaching 26°C under reduced cloud cover, while others cap lower due to persistent overcast skies and light rain or drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation (around 2,240 m) keeps seasonal September highs typically in the low-to-mid 20s°C, further moderated by the rainy season's frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, high humidity, and scattered precipitation chances (30–50% in many outlooks), which can suppress maximum temperatures if showers develop earlier in the day. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C or higher and 33% for exactly 25°C, appears driven by warmer model consensus runs and the potential for brief clearing that allows stronger insolation. Lower-probability outcomes below 24°C receive minimal weight, consistent with the absence of strong cooling signals such as heavy widespread rain or unusual cold-air advection. Key upcoming factors include the next model runs and any shifts in steering patterns or moisture that could alter afternoon cloud timing before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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