Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate Toronto's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and building high pressure favoring modest overnight radiative cooling. This range aligns with late-September climatology but carries uncertainty from potential model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with elevated implied probabilities on both sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes underscoring forecast divergence risks, while mid-range buckets capture the consensus baseline. Fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings will likely drive the next market moves as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 23?
5°C or below 80%
15°C or higher 41%
6°C 37%
10°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
80%
6°C
37%
7°C
21%
8°C
21%
9°C
21%
10°C
22%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
41%
5°C or below 80%
15°C or higher 41%
6°C 37%
10°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
$91 Vol.
80%
6°C
$40 Vol.
37%
7°C
$0 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$10 Vol.
21%
14°C
$30 Vol.
21%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate Toronto's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and building high pressure favoring modest overnight radiative cooling. This range aligns with late-September climatology but carries uncertainty from potential model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with elevated implied probabilities on both sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes underscoring forecast divergence risks, while mid-range buckets capture the consensus baseline. Fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings will likely drive the next market moves as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$181End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate Toronto's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and building high pressure favoring modest overnight radiative cooling. This range aligns with late-September climatology but carries uncertainty from potential model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with elevated implied probabilities on both sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes underscoring forecast divergence risks, while mid-range buckets capture the consensus baseline. Fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings will likely drive the next market moves as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$181End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate Toronto's minimum temperature on September 23 will likely fall between 10–13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and building high pressure favoring modest overnight radiative cooling. This range aligns with late-September climatology but carries uncertainty from potential model shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, with elevated implied probabilities on both sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes underscoring forecast divergence risks, while mid-range buckets capture the consensus baseline. Fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings will likely drive the next market moves as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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