National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Polo has already undergone rapid intensification to Category 4 status with 150 mph sustained winds and a well-defined eye, placing it firmly above the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ideal environmental conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, drove an approximately 90 kt increase over 24 hours, aligning with aggressive model guidance and near-90% rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS indices. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance scheduled later today will refine intensity estimates, though minor revisions remain possible if inner-core fluctuations or track shifts alter exposure to land influences near southwestern Mexico. Trader consensus at 97.6% reflects this confirmed progression with limited realistic reversal scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTropical Storm Polo strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Polo strengthens to a hurricane?
98% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
98% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Polo reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Polo has already undergone rapid intensification to Category 4 status with 150 mph sustained winds and a well-defined eye, placing it firmly above the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ideal environmental conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, drove an approximately 90 kt increase over 24 hours, aligning with aggressive model guidance and near-90% rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS indices. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance scheduled later today will refine intensity estimates, though minor revisions remain possible if inner-core fluctuations or track shifts alter exposure to land influences near southwestern Mexico. Trader consensus at 97.6% reflects this confirmed progression with limited realistic reversal scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Polo reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$3,472End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Polo reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Polo has already undergone rapid intensification to Category 4 status with 150 mph sustained winds and a well-defined eye, placing it firmly above the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ideal environmental conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, drove an approximately 90 kt increase over 24 hours, aligning with aggressive model guidance and near-90% rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS indices. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance scheduled later today will refine intensity estimates, though minor revisions remain possible if inner-core fluctuations or track shifts alter exposure to land influences near southwestern Mexico. Trader consensus at 97.6% reflects this confirmed progression with limited realistic reversal scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Polo reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Polo reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Polo does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Polo is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$3,472End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...National Hurricane Center observations confirm Tropical Storm Polo has already undergone rapid intensification to Category 4 status with 150 mph sustained winds and a well-defined eye, placing it firmly above the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ideal environmental conditions, including low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, drove an approximately 90 kt increase over 24 hours, aligning with aggressive model guidance and near-90% rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS indices. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance scheduled later today will refine intensity estimates, though minor revisions remain possible if inner-core fluctuations or track shifts alter exposure to land influences near southwestern Mexico. Trader consensus at 97.6% reflects this confirmed progression with limited realistic reversal scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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