Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a daily minimum near 57–59°F for San Francisco on September 24, driven by moderate onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that limits nocturnal cooling. Persistent stratus and fog typical of late September keep the diurnal range narrow, with historical September lows averaging 55–56°F at official stations. Trader emphasis on the 56–57°F bin reflects this baseline while the sizable probabilities on 68°F+ and 49°F or below capture uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth, wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects that can shift the recorded minimum by 2–4°F. Updated short-range model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
68°F or higher 92%
49°F or below 75%
56-57°F 48%
50-51°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
49°F or below
75%
50-51°F
38%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
48%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
38%
66-67°F
38%
68°F or higher
92%
68°F or higher 92%
49°F or below 75%
56-57°F 48%
50-51°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
75%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
38%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
15%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
15%
56-57°F
$28 Vol.
48%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
24%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
16%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
14%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
38%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
38%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a daily minimum near 57–59°F for San Francisco on September 24, driven by moderate onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that limits nocturnal cooling. Persistent stratus and fog typical of late September keep the diurnal range narrow, with historical September lows averaging 55–56°F at official stations. Trader emphasis on the 56–57°F bin reflects this baseline while the sizable probabilities on 68°F+ and 49°F or below capture uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth, wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects that can shift the recorded minimum by 2–4°F. Updated short-range model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a daily minimum near 57–59°F for San Francisco on September 24, driven by moderate onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that limits nocturnal cooling. Persistent stratus and fog typical of late September keep the diurnal range narrow, with historical September lows averaging 55–56°F at official stations. Trader emphasis on the 56–57°F bin reflects this baseline while the sizable probabilities on 68°F+ and 49°F or below capture uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth, wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects that can shift the recorded minimum by 2–4°F. Updated short-range model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a daily minimum near 57–59°F for San Francisco on September 24, driven by moderate onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that limits nocturnal cooling. Persistent stratus and fog typical of late September keep the diurnal range narrow, with historical September lows averaging 55–56°F at official stations. Trader emphasis on the 56–57°F bin reflects this baseline while the sizable probabilities on 68°F+ and 49°F or below capture uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth, wind timing, and localized urban heat-island effects that can shift the recorded minimum by 2–4°F. Updated short-range model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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