**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
11°C 59%
12°C 24%
10°C 15%
9°C 3%
NEW
$10,269 Vol.
NEW
$10,269 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
3%
10°C
15%
11°C
59%
12°C
24%
13°C
2%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 59%
12°C 24%
10°C 15%
9°C 3%
NEW
$10,269 Vol.
NEW
$10,269 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
$218 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$354 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$840 Vol.
3%
10°C
$1,232 Vol.
15%
11°C
$1,544 Vol.
59%
12°C
$3,766 Vol.
24%
13°C
$761 Vol.
2%
14°C
$371 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$800 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,269End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,269End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Southerly winds shifting behind a cold front are the main driver keeping Wellington's September 23 maximum near 10–11 °C.** Recent model runs and official guidance from MetService and international forecasts show a transition from northerly flow to cooler southerlies on the 22nd–23rd, with daytime highs forecast between 9–11 °C and a chance of showers that should clear by afternoon. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 11 °C (58 %) and 12 °C (24 %), while the 10 °C outcome at 15 % reflects residual model spread on exact timing of the clearance and wind strength. Historical September maxima average near 14 °C, so the current setup represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the frontal passage. Updated NWP runs and any late adjustments to the front's arrival will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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