A southerly wind shift following a frontal passage is the main driver positioning cooler overnight temperatures in Wellington for September 23, with multiple models indicating a minimum near 2–5°C under partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug and Yr show daytime highs around 9–11°C and overnight lows dropping to the low single digits Celsius amid scattered showers, consistent with the market’s 50% implied probability on 3°C or below while capping upside at higher thresholds. Spring climatology in the region typically features September minima near 9°C, but the current pattern deviates due to the timely arrival of cooler maritime air. Traders are closely watching updated model runs and MetService guidance ahead of resolution, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing could adjust the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
3°C or below 100%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
100%
4°C
17%
5°C
40%
6°C
40%
7°C
40%
8°C
31%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C or higher
2%
3°C or below 100%
5°C 40%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
4°C
$0 Vol.
17%
5°C
$0 Vol.
40%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
31%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A southerly wind shift following a frontal passage is the main driver positioning cooler overnight temperatures in Wellington for September 23, with multiple models indicating a minimum near 2–5°C under partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug and Yr show daytime highs around 9–11°C and overnight lows dropping to the low single digits Celsius amid scattered showers, consistent with the market’s 50% implied probability on 3°C or below while capping upside at higher thresholds. Spring climatology in the region typically features September minima near 9°C, but the current pattern deviates due to the timely arrival of cooler maritime air. Traders are closely watching updated model runs and MetService guidance ahead of resolution, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing could adjust the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A southerly wind shift following a frontal passage is the main driver positioning cooler overnight temperatures in Wellington for September 23, with multiple models indicating a minimum near 2–5°C under partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug and Yr show daytime highs around 9–11°C and overnight lows dropping to the low single digits Celsius amid scattered showers, consistent with the market’s 50% implied probability on 3°C or below while capping upside at higher thresholds. Spring climatology in the region typically features September minima near 9°C, but the current pattern deviates due to the timely arrival of cooler maritime air. Traders are closely watching updated model runs and MetService guidance ahead of resolution, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing could adjust the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...A southerly wind shift following a frontal passage is the main driver positioning cooler overnight temperatures in Wellington for September 23, with multiple models indicating a minimum near 2–5°C under partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug and Yr show daytime highs around 9–11°C and overnight lows dropping to the low single digits Celsius amid scattered showers, consistent with the market’s 50% implied probability on 3°C or below while capping upside at higher thresholds. Spring climatology in the region typically features September minima near 9°C, but the current pattern deviates due to the timely arrival of cooler maritime air. Traders are closely watching updated model runs and MetService guidance ahead of resolution, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing could adjust the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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