Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56°F on September 23, driven by typical late-summer marine layer conditions with onshore westerly flow moderating overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns closely with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability at 53.5%, reflecting trader consensus around official model guidance showing highs near 77°F and minimal deviation from the September average low of 55.7°F. Supporting runs from other sources cluster lows between 56–58°F, with limited upside risk from stronger warming or downside from enhanced fog and clearer skies. Upcoming evening model updates and NWS briefings will refine exact minimum readings at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
56-57°F 60%
66°F or higher 46%
50-51°F 39%
54-55°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
23%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
53%
58-59°F
22%
60-61°F
20%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
46%
56-57°F 60%
66°F or higher 46%
50-51°F 39%
54-55°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
$41 Vol.
23%
48-49°F
$18 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$58 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
21%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$86 Vol.
53%
58-59°F
$104 Vol.
22%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
20%
62-63°F
$20 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$50 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$110 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56°F on September 23, driven by typical late-summer marine layer conditions with onshore westerly flow moderating overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns closely with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability at 53.5%, reflecting trader consensus around official model guidance showing highs near 77°F and minimal deviation from the September average low of 55.7°F. Supporting runs from other sources cluster lows between 56–58°F, with limited upside risk from stronger warming or downside from enhanced fog and clearer skies. Upcoming evening model updates and NWS briefings will refine exact minimum readings at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$486End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56°F on September 23, driven by typical late-summer marine layer conditions with onshore westerly flow moderating overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns closely with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability at 53.5%, reflecting trader consensus around official model guidance showing highs near 77°F and minimal deviation from the September average low of 55.7°F. Supporting runs from other sources cluster lows between 56–58°F, with limited upside risk from stronger warming or downside from enhanced fog and clearer skies. Upcoming evening model updates and NWS briefings will refine exact minimum readings at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$486End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56°F on September 23, driven by typical late-summer marine layer conditions with onshore westerly flow moderating overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns closely with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability at 53.5%, reflecting trader consensus around official model guidance showing highs near 77°F and minimal deviation from the September average low of 55.7°F. Supporting runs from other sources cluster lows between 56–58°F, with limited upside risk from stronger warming or downside from enhanced fog and clearer skies. Upcoming evening model updates and NWS briefings will refine exact minimum readings at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions