Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched market odds, with Environment Canada and ensemble models projecting a minimum near 6–10°C for Toronto on September 24 under clear skies and light easterly winds that favor radiational cooling. Clear conditions overnight enhance surface heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward the lower tail, while any increase in cloud cover or mixing from stronger winds could limit cooling and support milder values. Late-September climatology shows typical lows near 12°C, providing context for the spread. Traders weigh these variables against upcoming model runs and official updates from Environment Canada, which will refine the overnight temperature trajectory before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 24?
15°C or higher 97%
5°C or below 96%
6°C 39%
10°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
5°C or below
96%
6°C
39%
7°C
20%
8°C
20%
9°C
20%
10°C
21%
11°C
21%
12°C
20%
13°C
20%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
97%
15°C or higher 97%
5°C or below 96%
6°C 39%
10°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
96%
6°C
$10 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched market odds, with Environment Canada and ensemble models projecting a minimum near 6–10°C for Toronto on September 24 under clear skies and light easterly winds that favor radiational cooling. Clear conditions overnight enhance surface heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward the lower tail, while any increase in cloud cover or mixing from stronger winds could limit cooling and support milder values. Late-September climatology shows typical lows near 12°C, providing context for the spread. Traders weigh these variables against upcoming model runs and official updates from Environment Canada, which will refine the overnight temperature trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched market odds, with Environment Canada and ensemble models projecting a minimum near 6–10°C for Toronto on September 24 under clear skies and light easterly winds that favor radiational cooling. Clear conditions overnight enhance surface heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward the lower tail, while any increase in cloud cover or mixing from stronger winds could limit cooling and support milder values. Late-September climatology shows typical lows near 12°C, providing context for the spread. Traders weigh these variables against upcoming model runs and official updates from Environment Canada, which will refine the overnight temperature trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty drives the closely matched market odds, with Environment Canada and ensemble models projecting a minimum near 6–10°C for Toronto on September 24 under clear skies and light easterly winds that favor radiational cooling. Clear conditions overnight enhance surface heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward the lower tail, while any increase in cloud cover or mixing from stronger winds could limit cooling and support milder values. Late-September climatology shows typical lows near 12°C, providing context for the spread. Traders weigh these variables against upcoming model runs and official updates from Environment Canada, which will refine the overnight temperature trajectory before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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