Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall between 13–15°C following a cold front that brought cooler, moist air and rain on September 22–23. Overnight radiative cooling under clearing or partly cloudy skies, combined with light southeast winds and dew points near 12–14°C, will set the low during pre-dawn hours, while urban heat island effects and station siting introduce minor variability in official readings. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary layer moisture or wind mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–15°C bins, with new observational updates from INMET expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
9°C or below 83%
19°C or higher 45%
14°C 44%
13°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
83%
10°C
17%
11°C
21%
12°C
21%
13°C
25%
14°C
38%
15°C
22%
16°C
20%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C or higher
45%
9°C or below 83%
19°C or higher 45%
14°C 44%
13°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
83%
10°C
$58 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$10 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$10 Vol.
16%
18°C
$10 Vol.
16%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall between 13–15°C following a cold front that brought cooler, moist air and rain on September 22–23. Overnight radiative cooling under clearing or partly cloudy skies, combined with light southeast winds and dew points near 12–14°C, will set the low during pre-dawn hours, while urban heat island effects and station siting introduce minor variability in official readings. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary layer moisture or wind mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–15°C bins, with new observational updates from INMET expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall between 13–15°C following a cold front that brought cooler, moist air and rain on September 22–23. Overnight radiative cooling under clearing or partly cloudy skies, combined with light southeast winds and dew points near 12–14°C, will set the low during pre-dawn hours, while urban heat island effects and station siting introduce minor variability in official readings. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary layer moisture or wind mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–15°C bins, with new observational updates from INMET expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall between 13–15°C following a cold front that brought cooler, moist air and rain on September 22–23. Overnight radiative cooling under clearing or partly cloudy skies, combined with light southeast winds and dew points near 12–14°C, will set the low during pre-dawn hours, while urban heat island effects and station siting introduce minor variability in official readings. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary layer moisture or wind mixing explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–15°C bins, with new observational updates from INMET expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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