Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a maximum of 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 23 under overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and possible drizzle, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent cloud cover following recent heavy rain has suppressed daytime heating compared with seasonal norms near 26°C, while stable high pressure limits warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread on peak values, though small shifts in timing or wind could tip the daily high by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and refined ensemble runs ahead of the date will be the key variables for traders assessing resolution between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
25°C 33%
24°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
9%
23°C
20%
24°C
26%
25°C
33%
26°C
17%
27°C
10%
28°C
8%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 33%
24°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
21°C
$15 Vol.
4%
22°C
$5 Vol.
9%
23°C
$29 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$3 Vol.
33%
26°C
$0 Vol.
17%
27°C
$15 Vol.
10%
28°C
$12 Vol.
8%
29°C
$15 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a maximum of 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 23 under overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and possible drizzle, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent cloud cover following recent heavy rain has suppressed daytime heating compared with seasonal norms near 26°C, while stable high pressure limits warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread on peak values, though small shifts in timing or wind could tip the daily high by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and refined ensemble runs ahead of the date will be the key variables for traders assessing resolution between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a maximum of 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 23 under overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and possible drizzle, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent cloud cover following recent heavy rain has suppressed daytime heating compared with seasonal norms near 26°C, while stable high pressure limits warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread on peak values, though small shifts in timing or wind could tip the daily high by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and refined ensemble runs ahead of the date will be the key variables for traders assessing resolution between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to a maximum of 24–25°C in Tokyo on September 23 under overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and possible drizzle, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent cloud cover following recent heavy rain has suppressed daytime heating compared with seasonal norms near 26°C, while stable high pressure limits warm advection. Model consensus shows low spread on peak values, though small shifts in timing or wind could tip the daily high by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and refined ensemble runs ahead of the date will be the key variables for traders assessing resolution between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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