Short-range temperature forecasts for Dallas show a tight cluster of possible highs between 92°F and 97°F on September 23, reflecting modest spread among NOAA, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble runs. Recent surface observations indicate near-normal late-September conditions with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, while model differences hinge on the exact timing and strength of an approaching upper-level trough that could either enhance mixing and push readings toward 96-97°F or allow slightly cooler advection favoring the lower 90s. Historical September maxima average near 91°F, so current guidance sits modestly above climatology with resolution criteria tied to the official NWS Dallas-Fort Worth daily maximum. Traders are pricing the narrow spread because additional model updates and afternoon soundings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 23?
92-93°F 30%
94-95°F 24%
96-97°F 19%
98-99°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
7%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
30%
94-95°F
24%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
18%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
1%
104°F or higher
10%
92-93°F 30%
94-95°F 24%
96-97°F 19%
98-99°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$7 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
17%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
30%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
24%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$5 Vol.
18%
100-101°F
$10 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$22 Vol.
1%
104°F or higher
$7 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range temperature forecasts for Dallas show a tight cluster of possible highs between 92°F and 97°F on September 23, reflecting modest spread among NOAA, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble runs. Recent surface observations indicate near-normal late-September conditions with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, while model differences hinge on the exact timing and strength of an approaching upper-level trough that could either enhance mixing and push readings toward 96-97°F or allow slightly cooler advection favoring the lower 90s. Historical September maxima average near 91°F, so current guidance sits modestly above climatology with resolution criteria tied to the official NWS Dallas-Fort Worth daily maximum. Traders are pricing the narrow spread because additional model updates and afternoon soundings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range temperature forecasts for Dallas show a tight cluster of possible highs between 92°F and 97°F on September 23, reflecting modest spread among NOAA, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble runs. Recent surface observations indicate near-normal late-September conditions with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, while model differences hinge on the exact timing and strength of an approaching upper-level trough that could either enhance mixing and push readings toward 96-97°F or allow slightly cooler advection favoring the lower 90s. Historical September maxima average near 91°F, so current guidance sits modestly above climatology with resolution criteria tied to the official NWS Dallas-Fort Worth daily maximum. Traders are pricing the narrow spread because additional model updates and afternoon soundings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range temperature forecasts for Dallas show a tight cluster of possible highs between 92°F and 97°F on September 23, reflecting modest spread among NOAA, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble runs. Recent surface observations indicate near-normal late-September conditions with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, while model differences hinge on the exact timing and strength of an approaching upper-level trough that could either enhance mixing and push readings toward 96-97°F or allow slightly cooler advection favoring the lower 90s. Historical September maxima average near 91°F, so current guidance sits modestly above climatology with resolution criteria tied to the official NWS Dallas-Fort Worth daily maximum. Traders are pricing the narrow spread because additional model updates and afternoon soundings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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