Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to a cool, cloudy day in São Paulo on September 24 driven by a passing cold front that has lowered maximum temperatures below seasonal norms. Highs are projected near 16–18°C under persistent low clouds and light rain or drizzle, limiting diurnal warming compared with typical September maxima around 23–25°C. Key variables include the exact timing of frontal passage, cloud cover duration, and surface wind patterns that could allow brief clearing and a modest temperature spike toward 19–20°C. Official observations from INMET stations will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble guidance showing limited upside potential above 21°C. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours remain the primary catalyst for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
20°C 29%
21°C 25%
19°C 25%
18°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
13°C or below
4%
14°C
4%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
9%
18°C
17%
19°C
25%
20°C
29%
21°C
25%
22°C
15%
23°C or higher
10%
20°C 29%
21°C 25%
19°C 25%
18°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
13°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
14°C
$10 Vol.
4%
15°C
$0 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
29%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C or higher
$51 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to a cool, cloudy day in São Paulo on September 24 driven by a passing cold front that has lowered maximum temperatures below seasonal norms. Highs are projected near 16–18°C under persistent low clouds and light rain or drizzle, limiting diurnal warming compared with typical September maxima around 23–25°C. Key variables include the exact timing of frontal passage, cloud cover duration, and surface wind patterns that could allow brief clearing and a modest temperature spike toward 19–20°C. Official observations from INMET stations will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble guidance showing limited upside potential above 21°C. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours remain the primary catalyst for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to a cool, cloudy day in São Paulo on September 24 driven by a passing cold front that has lowered maximum temperatures below seasonal norms. Highs are projected near 16–18°C under persistent low clouds and light rain or drizzle, limiting diurnal warming compared with typical September maxima around 23–25°C. Key variables include the exact timing of frontal passage, cloud cover duration, and surface wind patterns that could allow brief clearing and a modest temperature spike toward 19–20°C. Official observations from INMET stations will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble guidance showing limited upside potential above 21°C. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours remain the primary catalyst for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to a cool, cloudy day in São Paulo on September 24 driven by a passing cold front that has lowered maximum temperatures below seasonal norms. Highs are projected near 16–18°C under persistent low clouds and light rain or drizzle, limiting diurnal warming compared with typical September maxima around 23–25°C. Key variables include the exact timing of frontal passage, cloud cover duration, and surface wind patterns that could allow brief clearing and a modest temperature spike toward 19–20°C. Official observations from INMET stations will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble guidance showing limited upside potential above 21°C. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours remain the primary catalyst for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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