Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 69–73°F in San Francisco on September 24 under a typical late-summer marine layer regime, with onshore westerly flow and afternoon clearing keeping temperatures close to the 1991–2020 average of 70.8°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 70–75°F bins because forecast spreads remain narrow, reflecting modest differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Stronger afternoon sea breezes or lingering stratus could cap the peak near 70°F, while earlier clearing and slightly warmer 850 hPa air would support a 74–75°F reading. No significant warm advection or offshore flow is expected to push readings into the upper 70s or above, aligning with the low single-digit probabilities assigned to those outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
72-73°F 32%
74-75°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
76-77°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
3%
72-73°F 32%
74-75°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
76-77°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
10%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
21%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$81 Vol.
22%
76-77°F
$154 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$63 Vol.
11%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 69–73°F in San Francisco on September 24 under a typical late-summer marine layer regime, with onshore westerly flow and afternoon clearing keeping temperatures close to the 1991–2020 average of 70.8°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 70–75°F bins because forecast spreads remain narrow, reflecting modest differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Stronger afternoon sea breezes or lingering stratus could cap the peak near 70°F, while earlier clearing and slightly warmer 850 hPa air would support a 74–75°F reading. No significant warm advection or offshore flow is expected to push readings into the upper 70s or above, aligning with the low single-digit probabilities assigned to those outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$338End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 69–73°F in San Francisco on September 24 under a typical late-summer marine layer regime, with onshore westerly flow and afternoon clearing keeping temperatures close to the 1991–2020 average of 70.8°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 70–75°F bins because forecast spreads remain narrow, reflecting modest differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Stronger afternoon sea breezes or lingering stratus could cap the peak near 70°F, while earlier clearing and slightly warmer 850 hPa air would support a 74–75°F reading. No significant warm advection or offshore flow is expected to push readings into the upper 70s or above, aligning with the low single-digit probabilities assigned to those outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$338End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 69–73°F in San Francisco on September 24 under a typical late-summer marine layer regime, with onshore westerly flow and afternoon clearing keeping temperatures close to the 1991–2020 average of 70.8°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 70–75°F bins because forecast spreads remain narrow, reflecting modest differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Stronger afternoon sea breezes or lingering stratus could cap the peak near 70°F, while earlier clearing and slightly warmer 850 hPa air would support a 74–75°F reading. No significant warm advection or offshore flow is expected to push readings into the upper 70s or above, aligning with the low single-digit probabilities assigned to those outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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