Hurricane Odalys reached Category 1 strength on September 23, 2026, with National Hurricane Center estimates of 70-80 mph sustained winds, a central pressure of 984 mb, and deep convection featuring cloud-top temperatures near -90°C. Dvorak and objective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS supported the upgrade from tropical storm status, reflecting favorable atmospheric conditions and steady intensification over the open eastern Pacific. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability aligns with these verified observations from authoritative monitoring. Residual uncertainty remains limited to potential short-term intensity fluctuations from minor steering changes or interaction with nearby Hurricane Polo, though official guidance shows no reversal below hurricane thresholds before typical resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
>99% chance
$2,865 Vol.
$2,865 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
>99% chance
$2,865 Vol.
$2,865 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Hurricane Odalys reached Category 1 strength on September 23, 2026, with National Hurricane Center estimates of 70-80 mph sustained winds, a central pressure of 984 mb, and deep convection featuring cloud-top temperatures near -90°C. Dvorak and objective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS supported the upgrade from tropical storm status, reflecting favorable atmospheric conditions and steady intensification over the open eastern Pacific. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability aligns with these verified observations from authoritative monitoring. Residual uncertainty remains limited to potential short-term intensity fluctuations from minor steering changes or interaction with nearby Hurricane Polo, though official guidance shows no reversal below hurricane thresholds before typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$2,865End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070be91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Hurricane Odalys reached Category 1 strength on September 23, 2026, with National Hurricane Center estimates of 70-80 mph sustained winds, a central pressure of 984 mb, and deep convection featuring cloud-top temperatures near -90°C. Dvorak and objective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS supported the upgrade from tropical storm status, reflecting favorable atmospheric conditions and steady intensification over the open eastern Pacific. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability aligns with these verified observations from authoritative monitoring. Residual uncertainty remains limited to potential short-term intensity fluctuations from minor steering changes or interaction with nearby Hurricane Polo, though official guidance shows no reversal below hurricane thresholds before typical resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070be91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Hurricane Odalys reached Category 1 strength on September 23, 2026, with National Hurricane Center estimates of 70-80 mph sustained winds, a central pressure of 984 mb, and deep convection featuring cloud-top temperatures near -90°C. Dvorak and objective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS supported the upgrade from tropical storm status, reflecting favorable atmospheric conditions and steady intensification over the open eastern Pacific. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability aligns with these verified observations from authoritative monitoring. Residual uncertainty remains limited to potential short-term intensity fluctuations from minor steering changes or interaction with nearby Hurricane Polo, though official guidance shows no reversal below hurricane thresholds before typical resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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