Recent short-range forecasts from European and global models place Madrid's overnight low on September 26 near 16–17 °C, right at the market's pivotal threshold between the closely matched 16 °C-or-below and 26 °C-or-higher outcomes. Persistent high pressure and mostly clear skies favor strong radiative cooling after daytime highs of 31–34 °C, yet an ongoing warm anomaly of roughly +2–3 °C above the late-September climatological low of ~14 °C limits how far temperatures may fall. Light variable winds and any increase in low-level moisture or cloud cover could reduce nocturnal cooling by several degrees, while stronger mixing would enhance it. Model consensus remains tight on the current setup, but the next ECMWF and GFS runs will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer conditions tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
26°C or higher 98%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
98%
26°C or higher 98%
17°C 39%
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from European and global models place Madrid's overnight low on September 26 near 16–17 °C, right at the market's pivotal threshold between the closely matched 16 °C-or-below and 26 °C-or-higher outcomes. Persistent high pressure and mostly clear skies favor strong radiative cooling after daytime highs of 31–34 °C, yet an ongoing warm anomaly of roughly +2–3 °C above the late-September climatological low of ~14 °C limits how far temperatures may fall. Light variable winds and any increase in low-level moisture or cloud cover could reduce nocturnal cooling by several degrees, while stronger mixing would enhance it. Model consensus remains tight on the current setup, but the next ECMWF and GFS runs will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer conditions tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from European and global models place Madrid's overnight low on September 26 near 16–17 °C, right at the market's pivotal threshold between the closely matched 16 °C-or-below and 26 °C-or-higher outcomes. Persistent high pressure and mostly clear skies favor strong radiative cooling after daytime highs of 31–34 °C, yet an ongoing warm anomaly of roughly +2–3 °C above the late-September climatological low of ~14 °C limits how far temperatures may fall. Light variable winds and any increase in low-level moisture or cloud cover could reduce nocturnal cooling by several degrees, while stronger mixing would enhance it. Model consensus remains tight on the current setup, but the next ECMWF and GFS runs will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer conditions tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent short-range forecasts from European and global models place Madrid's overnight low on September 26 near 16–17 °C, right at the market's pivotal threshold between the closely matched 16 °C-or-below and 26 °C-or-higher outcomes. Persistent high pressure and mostly clear skies favor strong radiative cooling after daytime highs of 31–34 °C, yet an ongoing warm anomaly of roughly +2–3 °C above the late-September climatological low of ~14 °C limits how far temperatures may fall. Light variable winds and any increase in low-level moisture or cloud cover could reduce nocturnal cooling by several degrees, while stronger mixing would enhance it. Model consensus remains tight on the current setup, but the next ECMWF and GFS runs will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer conditions tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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