Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 26 most likely in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with a slow-moving frontal system drawing cooler maritime air from the west. High humidity near 85–90% and light winds limit daytime warming, keeping maxima below late-September climatological averages of around 18°C. Official guidance shows broad model agreement on overcast conditions with only modest diurnal rises, though slight clearing could allow a brief push toward 18°C. Traders appear to weigh the stable cool pattern heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 16–17°C outcomes pending any last-minute model shifts ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 26?
17°C 37%
18°C 37%
16°C 25%
19°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
11°C or below
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
16%
16°C
25%
17°C
37%
18°C
37%
19°C
19%
20°C
15%
21°C or higher
10%
17°C 37%
18°C 37%
16°C 25%
19°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
4%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
16%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
37%
18°C
$0 Vol.
37%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 26 most likely in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with a slow-moving frontal system drawing cooler maritime air from the west. High humidity near 85–90% and light winds limit daytime warming, keeping maxima below late-September climatological averages of around 18°C. Official guidance shows broad model agreement on overcast conditions with only modest diurnal rises, though slight clearing could allow a brief push toward 18°C. Traders appear to weigh the stable cool pattern heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 16–17°C outcomes pending any last-minute model shifts ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 26 most likely in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with a slow-moving frontal system drawing cooler maritime air from the west. High humidity near 85–90% and light winds limit daytime warming, keeping maxima below late-September climatological averages of around 18°C. Official guidance shows broad model agreement on overcast conditions with only modest diurnal rises, though slight clearing could allow a brief push toward 18°C. Traders appear to weigh the stable cool pattern heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 16–17°C outcomes pending any last-minute model shifts ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 26 most likely in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with a slow-moving frontal system drawing cooler maritime air from the west. High humidity near 85–90% and light winds limit daytime warming, keeping maxima below late-September climatological averages of around 18°C. Official guidance shows broad model agreement on overcast conditions with only modest diurnal rises, though slight clearing could allow a brief push toward 18°C. Traders appear to weigh the stable cool pattern heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 16–17°C outcomes pending any last-minute model shifts ahead of the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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