Latest numerical weather prediction models for Manila indicate daytime highs of 31–33°C on September 26 amid the southwest monsoon and moderate El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific. Frequent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity—typical for late September—limit extreme heating, keeping most ensemble guidance below historical record levels. PAGASA monitoring and international model consensus show modest warming relative to long-term averages near 32°C, supporting the market’s leading 33°C outcome while leaving room for lower readings if rainfall increases. Updated forecasts and official advisories through the weekend will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 26?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 26?
33°C 37%
32°C 24%
31°C 18%
30°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
12%
31°C
18%
32°C
24%
33°C
37%
34°C
12%
35°C
9%
36°C
9%
37°C
10%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C 24%
31°C 18%
30°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
29°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
12%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
24%
33°C
$8 Vol.
37%
34°C
$0 Vol.
12%
35°C
$0 Vol.
9%
36°C
$0 Vol.
9%
37°C
$0 Vol.
10%
38°C
$0 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models for Manila indicate daytime highs of 31–33°C on September 26 amid the southwest monsoon and moderate El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific. Frequent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity—typical for late September—limit extreme heating, keeping most ensemble guidance below historical record levels. PAGASA monitoring and international model consensus show modest warming relative to long-term averages near 32°C, supporting the market’s leading 33°C outcome while leaving room for lower readings if rainfall increases. Updated forecasts and official advisories through the weekend will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$23End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models for Manila indicate daytime highs of 31–33°C on September 26 amid the southwest monsoon and moderate El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific. Frequent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity—typical for late September—limit extreme heating, keeping most ensemble guidance below historical record levels. PAGASA monitoring and international model consensus show modest warming relative to long-term averages near 32°C, supporting the market’s leading 33°C outcome while leaving room for lower readings if rainfall increases. Updated forecasts and official advisories through the weekend will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47de9d...Latest numerical weather prediction models for Manila indicate daytime highs of 31–33°C on September 26 amid the southwest monsoon and moderate El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific. Frequent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity—typical for late September—limit extreme heating, keeping most ensemble guidance below historical record levels. PAGASA monitoring and international model consensus show modest warming relative to long-term averages near 32°C, supporting the market’s leading 33°C outcome while leaving room for lower readings if rainfall increases. Updated forecasts and official advisories through the weekend will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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