Recent passage of Typhoon Dujuan has introduced cooler, moister air and increased cloud cover over the Kanto region, moderating Tokyo's maximum temperatures into the narrow 27–29°C band where trader consensus clusters near 25–27% implied probability each. Northerly winds advecting post-storm maritime air, combined with lingering stratiform clouds that reduce solar insolation, limit daytime heating relative to seasonal normals around 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest model spread tied to exact timing of clearing and any residual moisture, keeping lower probabilities on 26°C or 30°C outcomes while historical late-September variability supports the tight distribution ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency's next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
28°C 43%
29°C 27%
27°C 26%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
20%
26°C
13%
27°C
26%
28°C
35%
29°C
27%
30°C
15%
31°C
16%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 43%
29°C 27%
27°C 26%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
13%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
35%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
16%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent passage of Typhoon Dujuan has introduced cooler, moister air and increased cloud cover over the Kanto region, moderating Tokyo's maximum temperatures into the narrow 27–29°C band where trader consensus clusters near 25–27% implied probability each. Northerly winds advecting post-storm maritime air, combined with lingering stratiform clouds that reduce solar insolation, limit daytime heating relative to seasonal normals around 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest model spread tied to exact timing of clearing and any residual moisture, keeping lower probabilities on 26°C or 30°C outcomes while historical late-September variability supports the tight distribution ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency's next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent passage of Typhoon Dujuan has introduced cooler, moister air and increased cloud cover over the Kanto region, moderating Tokyo's maximum temperatures into the narrow 27–29°C band where trader consensus clusters near 25–27% implied probability each. Northerly winds advecting post-storm maritime air, combined with lingering stratiform clouds that reduce solar insolation, limit daytime heating relative to seasonal normals around 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest model spread tied to exact timing of clearing and any residual moisture, keeping lower probabilities on 26°C or 30°C outcomes while historical late-September variability supports the tight distribution ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency's next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent passage of Typhoon Dujuan has introduced cooler, moister air and increased cloud cover over the Kanto region, moderating Tokyo's maximum temperatures into the narrow 27–29°C band where trader consensus clusters near 25–27% implied probability each. Northerly winds advecting post-storm maritime air, combined with lingering stratiform clouds that reduce solar insolation, limit daytime heating relative to seasonal normals around 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest model spread tied to exact timing of clearing and any residual moisture, keeping lower probabilities on 26°C or 30°C outcomes while historical late-September variability supports the tight distribution ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency's next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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