Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a high of 20–22°C for Istanbul on September 24, following cooler, rainy conditions on September 22–23 driven by northerly flow and a frontal system. This positions 20°C and 21°C as the leading market outcomes, consistent with historical late-September averages near 23°C but tempered by post-frontal stabilization and moderate sea-surface influences from the Marmara and Black Sea. Clearing skies and light winds are expected to limit further warming, while ensemble spreads remain narrow. Traders appear to weigh the tight model consensus against minor uncertainties in exact daytime heating rates ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
20°C 42%
19°C 37%
18°C 36%
21°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
4%
17°C
7%
18°C
36%
19°C
37%
20°C
40%
21°C
33%
22°C
7%
23°C
20%
24°C
5%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
2%
20°C 42%
19°C 37%
18°C 36%
21°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
36%
19°C
$0 Vol.
37%
20°C
$11 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
33%
22°C
$3 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a high of 20–22°C for Istanbul on September 24, following cooler, rainy conditions on September 22–23 driven by northerly flow and a frontal system. This positions 20°C and 21°C as the leading market outcomes, consistent with historical late-September averages near 23°C but tempered by post-frontal stabilization and moderate sea-surface influences from the Marmara and Black Sea. Clearing skies and light winds are expected to limit further warming, while ensemble spreads remain narrow. Traders appear to weigh the tight model consensus against minor uncertainties in exact daytime heating rates ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$14End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a high of 20–22°C for Istanbul on September 24, following cooler, rainy conditions on September 22–23 driven by northerly flow and a frontal system. This positions 20°C and 21°C as the leading market outcomes, consistent with historical late-September averages near 23°C but tempered by post-frontal stabilization and moderate sea-surface influences from the Marmara and Black Sea. Clearing skies and light winds are expected to limit further warming, while ensemble spreads remain narrow. Traders appear to weigh the tight model consensus against minor uncertainties in exact daytime heating rates ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a high of 20–22°C for Istanbul on September 24, following cooler, rainy conditions on September 22–23 driven by northerly flow and a frontal system. This positions 20°C and 21°C as the leading market outcomes, consistent with historical late-September averages near 23°C but tempered by post-frontal stabilization and moderate sea-surface influences from the Marmara and Black Sea. Clearing skies and light winds are expected to limit further warming, while ensemble spreads remain narrow. Traders appear to weigh the tight model consensus against minor uncertainties in exact daytime heating rates ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions