Trader consensus around 29–33°C for Manila’s September 25 peak reflects short-term forecast uncertainty in afternoon convection and monsoon-driven moisture. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs typically reaching the low 30s amid scattered thunderstorms, with cloud cover and localized downpours potentially suppressing or briefly elevating maxima depending on timing and intensity. Recent observations indicate similar conditions with highs near 31–33°C and frequent isolated storms, consistent with September climatology. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings, sustaining the tight distribution of market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 25?
29°C 35%
32°C 23%
33°C 22%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
35%
30°C
18%
31°C
18%
32°C
23%
33°C
22%
34°C
11%
35°C
18%
36°C
17%
37°C or higher
<1%
29°C 35%
32°C 23%
33°C 22%
31°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
35%
30°C
$0 Vol.
18%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
23%
33°C
$0 Vol.
22%
34°C
$6 Vol.
11%
35°C
$0 Vol.
18%
36°C
$0 Vol.
17%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 29–33°C for Manila’s September 25 peak reflects short-term forecast uncertainty in afternoon convection and monsoon-driven moisture. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs typically reaching the low 30s amid scattered thunderstorms, with cloud cover and localized downpours potentially suppressing or briefly elevating maxima depending on timing and intensity. Recent observations indicate similar conditions with highs near 31–33°C and frequent isolated storms, consistent with September climatology. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings, sustaining the tight distribution of market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 29–33°C for Manila’s September 25 peak reflects short-term forecast uncertainty in afternoon convection and monsoon-driven moisture. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs typically reaching the low 30s amid scattered thunderstorms, with cloud cover and localized downpours potentially suppressing or briefly elevating maxima depending on timing and intensity. Recent observations indicate similar conditions with highs near 31–33°C and frequent isolated storms, consistent with September climatology. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings, sustaining the tight distribution of market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 29–33°C for Manila’s September 25 peak reflects short-term forecast uncertainty in afternoon convection and monsoon-driven moisture. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs typically reaching the low 30s amid scattered thunderstorms, with cloud cover and localized downpours potentially suppressing or briefly elevating maxima depending on timing and intensity. Recent observations indicate similar conditions with highs near 31–33°C and frequent isolated storms, consistent with September climatology. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings, sustaining the tight distribution of market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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