Recent forecast consensus from multiple models indicates a high near 20°C in Amsterdam on September 25 under clear to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, consistent with the market's clustered 20–25°C outcomes at 20–21% each. This setup reflects typical late-September climatology, where average highs reach about 18°C but recent September 2026 observations have run 1–2°C above normal amid variable high pressure. The 23% implied probability on 26°C or higher incorporates residual model spread and potential for stronger advection, while sub-19°C bets remain low at 2% given limited cooling signals. Traders weigh these probabilities against upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 25?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 25?
20°C 26%
22°C 26%
21°C 26%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
16°C or below
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
17%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
22%
24°C
7%
25°C
15%
26°C or higher
14%
20°C 26%
22°C 26%
21°C 26%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$8 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C
$2 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models indicates a high near 20°C in Amsterdam on September 25 under clear to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, consistent with the market's clustered 20–25°C outcomes at 20–21% each. This setup reflects typical late-September climatology, where average highs reach about 18°C but recent September 2026 observations have run 1–2°C above normal amid variable high pressure. The 23% implied probability on 26°C or higher incorporates residual model spread and potential for stronger advection, while sub-19°C bets remain low at 2% given limited cooling signals. Traders weigh these probabilities against upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models indicates a high near 20°C in Amsterdam on September 25 under clear to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, consistent with the market's clustered 20–25°C outcomes at 20–21% each. This setup reflects typical late-September climatology, where average highs reach about 18°C but recent September 2026 observations have run 1–2°C above normal amid variable high pressure. The 23% implied probability on 26°C or higher incorporates residual model spread and potential for stronger advection, while sub-19°C bets remain low at 2% given limited cooling signals. Traders weigh these probabilities against upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple models indicates a high near 20°C in Amsterdam on September 25 under clear to mostly sunny skies with light southerly flow, consistent with the market's clustered 20–25°C outcomes at 20–21% each. This setup reflects typical late-September climatology, where average highs reach about 18°C but recent September 2026 observations have run 1–2°C above normal amid variable high pressure. The 23% implied probability on 26°C or higher incorporates residual model spread and potential for stronger advection, while sub-19°C bets remain low at 2% given limited cooling signals. Traders weigh these probabilities against upcoming model runs and any shifts in steering patterns before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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