**Recent forecasts for Madrid on September 25, 2026, consistently point to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable high-pressure conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly or variable winds.** Multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs from globalmeteo, 14cast, and local reports, show afternoon highs in this narrow band, driven by strong September insolation, minimal cloud cover, and dry air masses typical of late-summer anticyclonic patterns over central Spain. Lows are expected around 17–18°C overnight, setting up a diurnal range of roughly 15–17°C. The closely matched market-implied odds (peaking around 34–36°C at ~20% each) reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty in pinpointing the exact peak within a 1–3°C window. Small differences in steering winds, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any diurnal cloud development can shift the observed maximum by a degree or two at official stations. Historical late-September baselines for Madrid hover near 26–28°C, so the current warmer anomaly stems from persistent clear, dry conditions rather than an anomalous heat event. Updated model runs or official AEMET guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 25?
35°C 69%
34°C 31%
33°C 29%
36°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
16%
33°C
29%
34°C
31%
35°C
64%
36°C
17%
37°C
9%
38°C
5%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 69%
34°C 31%
33°C 29%
36°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
30°C or below
$19 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
4%
32°C
$0 Vol.
16%
33°C
$0 Vol.
29%
34°C
$0 Vol.
31%
35°C
$62 Vol.
64%
36°C
$0 Vol.
17%
37°C
$0 Vol.
9%
38°C
$0 Vol.
5%
39°C
$0 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Madrid on September 25, 2026, consistently point to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable high-pressure conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly or variable winds.** Multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs from globalmeteo, 14cast, and local reports, show afternoon highs in this narrow band, driven by strong September insolation, minimal cloud cover, and dry air masses typical of late-summer anticyclonic patterns over central Spain. Lows are expected around 17–18°C overnight, setting up a diurnal range of roughly 15–17°C.
The closely matched market-implied odds (peaking around 34–36°C at ~20% each) reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty in pinpointing the exact peak within a 1–3°C window. Small differences in steering winds, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any diurnal cloud development can shift the observed maximum by a degree or two at official stations. Historical late-September baselines for Madrid hover near 26–28°C, so the current warmer anomaly stems from persistent clear, dry conditions rather than an anomalous heat event. Updated model runs or official AEMET guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Madrid on September 25, 2026, consistently point to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable high-pressure conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly or variable winds.** Multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs from globalmeteo, 14cast, and local reports, show afternoon highs in this narrow band, driven by strong September insolation, minimal cloud cover, and dry air masses typical of late-summer anticyclonic patterns over central Spain. Lows are expected around 17–18°C overnight, setting up a diurnal range of roughly 15–17°C.
The closely matched market-implied odds (peaking around 34–36°C at ~20% each) reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty in pinpointing the exact peak within a 1–3°C window. Small differences in steering winds, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any diurnal cloud development can shift the observed maximum by a degree or two at official stations. Historical late-September baselines for Madrid hover near 26–28°C, so the current warmer anomaly stems from persistent clear, dry conditions rather than an anomalous heat event. Updated model runs or official AEMET guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Madrid on September 25, 2026, consistently point to a daytime maximum near 33–34°C under stable high-pressure conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly or variable winds.** Multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs from globalmeteo, 14cast, and local reports, show afternoon highs in this narrow band, driven by strong September insolation, minimal cloud cover, and dry air masses typical of late-summer anticyclonic patterns over central Spain. Lows are expected around 17–18°C overnight, setting up a diurnal range of roughly 15–17°C. The closely matched market-implied odds (peaking around 34–36°C at ~20% each) reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty in pinpointing the exact peak within a 1–3°C window. Small differences in steering winds, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any diurnal cloud development can shift the observed maximum by a degree or two at official stations. Historical late-September baselines for Madrid hover near 26–28°C, so the current warmer anomaly stems from persistent clear, dry conditions rather than an anomalous heat event. Updated model runs or official AEMET guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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