**Forecast models indicate a high probability of mild conditions with rain for Qingdao on September 25, 2026, producing a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered in the low-to-mid 20s°C.** Current numerical weather predictions from sources aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance show highs around 23–25°C under southeasterly flow, with light rain or drizzle expected to limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Qingdao’s coastal position on the Yellow Sea adds marine moderation, reducing temperature variability compared to inland sites and keeping extremes unlikely. The even distribution of market-implied probabilities across 20–27°C reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty—differences in model timing of precipitation, boundary-layer moisture, and exact wind shifts can shift the peak temperature by several degrees. Historical late-September averages near 24–26°C provide a baseline, but the approaching autumn transition and any lingering frontal activity introduce the spread traders are pricing. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 25?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 25?
23°C 28%
21°C 26%
22°C 23%
20°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
19°C or below
4%
20°C
22%
21°C
26%
22°C
23%
23°C
28%
24°C
9%
25°C
7%
26°C
16%
27°C
16%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
4%
23°C 28%
21°C 26%
22°C 23%
20°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
23%
23°C
$0 Vol.
28%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$5 Vol.
7%
26°C
$5 Vol.
16%
27°C
$5 Vol.
16%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a high probability of mild conditions with rain for Qingdao on September 25, 2026, producing a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered in the low-to-mid 20s°C.**
Current numerical weather predictions from sources aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance show highs around 23–25°C under southeasterly flow, with light rain or drizzle expected to limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Qingdao’s coastal position on the Yellow Sea adds marine moderation, reducing temperature variability compared to inland sites and keeping extremes unlikely.
The even distribution of market-implied probabilities across 20–27°C reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty—differences in model timing of precipitation, boundary-layer moisture, and exact wind shifts can shift the peak temperature by several degrees. Historical late-September averages near 24–26°C provide a baseline, but the approaching autumn transition and any lingering frontal activity introduce the spread traders are pricing. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a high probability of mild conditions with rain for Qingdao on September 25, 2026, producing a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered in the low-to-mid 20s°C.**
Current numerical weather predictions from sources aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance show highs around 23–25°C under southeasterly flow, with light rain or drizzle expected to limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Qingdao’s coastal position on the Yellow Sea adds marine moderation, reducing temperature variability compared to inland sites and keeping extremes unlikely.
The even distribution of market-implied probabilities across 20–27°C reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty—differences in model timing of precipitation, boundary-layer moisture, and exact wind shifts can shift the peak temperature by several degrees. Historical late-September averages near 24–26°C provide a baseline, but the approaching autumn transition and any lingering frontal activity introduce the spread traders are pricing. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a high probability of mild conditions with rain for Qingdao on September 25, 2026, producing a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered in the low-to-mid 20s°C.** Current numerical weather predictions from sources aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance show highs around 23–25°C under southeasterly flow, with light rain or drizzle expected to limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Qingdao’s coastal position on the Yellow Sea adds marine moderation, reducing temperature variability compared to inland sites and keeping extremes unlikely. The even distribution of market-implied probabilities across 20–27°C reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty—differences in model timing of precipitation, boundary-layer moisture, and exact wind shifts can shift the peak temperature by several degrees. Historical late-September averages near 24–26°C provide a baseline, but the approaching autumn transition and any lingering frontal activity introduce the spread traders are pricing. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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