Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Manila on September 24 reflects near-even implied probabilities for extremes around 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under the retreating southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms from the Habagat can suppress daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling at night, keeping minima near seasonal averages of 25–27°C. Clearer intervals or enhanced rainfall could shift outcomes either way, with official PAGASA and global models showing limited divergence so far. Urban heat island effects and ENSO-neutral conditions add baseline stability, though any late-season tropical disturbance would introduce rapid changes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 24?
21°C or below 95%
31°C or higher 95%
24°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
95%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
95%
21°C or below 95%
31°C or higher 95%
24°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Manila on September 24 reflects near-even implied probabilities for extremes around 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under the retreating southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms from the Habagat can suppress daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling at night, keeping minima near seasonal averages of 25–27°C. Clearer intervals or enhanced rainfall could shift outcomes either way, with official PAGASA and global models showing limited divergence so far. Urban heat island effects and ENSO-neutral conditions add baseline stability, though any late-season tropical disturbance would introduce rapid changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Manila on September 24 reflects near-even implied probabilities for extremes around 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under the retreating southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms from the Habagat can suppress daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling at night, keeping minima near seasonal averages of 25–27°C. Clearer intervals or enhanced rainfall could shift outcomes either way, with official PAGASA and global models showing limited divergence so far. Urban heat island effects and ENSO-neutral conditions add baseline stability, though any late-season tropical disturbance would introduce rapid changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Manila on September 24 reflects near-even implied probabilities for extremes around 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under the retreating southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms from the Habagat can suppress daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling at night, keeping minima near seasonal averages of 25–27°C. Clearer intervals or enhanced rainfall could shift outcomes either way, with official PAGASA and global models showing limited divergence so far. Urban heat island effects and ENSO-neutral conditions add baseline stability, though any late-season tropical disturbance would introduce rapid changes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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