Recent passage of a high-altitude trough has delivered cooling rain across Beijing on September 24, with official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models now converging on a mild September 26 featuring light rain or showers, southerly flow, and a daytime maximum near 25–26 °C. This places the market’s top outcomes (25 °C at 26 %, 26 °C at 27 %, 27 °C at 24.5 %) in a tight cluster, reflecting uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief convective warming beneath broken cloud cover. Historical late-September baselines and current ensemble guidance indicate limited potential for higher readings without a stronger ridge, while persistent moisture and modest winds cap upside risk. Updated model runs and CMA briefings ahead of the period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 26?
26°C 32%
25°C 27%
27°C 22%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
7%
23°C
7%
24°C
10%
25°C
27%
26°C
32%
27°C
22%
28°C
12%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 32%
25°C 27%
27°C 22%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
20°C or below
$405 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$142 Vol.
3%
22°C
$48 Vol.
7%
23°C
$54 Vol.
7%
24°C
$15 Vol.
10%
25°C
$15 Vol.
27%
26°C
$7 Vol.
32%
27°C
$5 Vol.
22%
28°C
$12 Vol.
12%
29°C
$5 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent passage of a high-altitude trough has delivered cooling rain across Beijing on September 24, with official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models now converging on a mild September 26 featuring light rain or showers, southerly flow, and a daytime maximum near 25–26 °C. This places the market’s top outcomes (25 °C at 26 %, 26 °C at 27 %, 27 °C at 24.5 %) in a tight cluster, reflecting uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief convective warming beneath broken cloud cover. Historical late-September baselines and current ensemble guidance indicate limited potential for higher readings without a stronger ridge, while persistent moisture and modest winds cap upside risk. Updated model runs and CMA briefings ahead of the period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$712End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent passage of a high-altitude trough has delivered cooling rain across Beijing on September 24, with official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models now converging on a mild September 26 featuring light rain or showers, southerly flow, and a daytime maximum near 25–26 °C. This places the market’s top outcomes (25 °C at 26 %, 26 °C at 27 %, 27 °C at 24.5 %) in a tight cluster, reflecting uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief convective warming beneath broken cloud cover. Historical late-September baselines and current ensemble guidance indicate limited potential for higher readings without a stronger ridge, while persistent moisture and modest winds cap upside risk. Updated model runs and CMA briefings ahead of the period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$712End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent passage of a high-altitude trough has delivered cooling rain across Beijing on September 24, with official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models now converging on a mild September 26 featuring light rain or showers, southerly flow, and a daytime maximum near 25–26 °C. This places the market’s top outcomes (25 °C at 26 %, 26 °C at 27 %, 27 °C at 24.5 %) in a tight cluster, reflecting uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief convective warming beneath broken cloud cover. Historical late-September baselines and current ensemble guidance indicate limited potential for higher readings without a stronger ridge, while persistent moisture and modest winds cap upside risk. Updated model runs and CMA briefings ahead of the period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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