**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs aligned with National Weather Service guidance, point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 70s°F for Austin on September 26, 2026, with highs near 93–96°F under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** This reflects typical late-September conditions in central Texas, where persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico maintains elevated humidity and limits nocturnal radiational cooling. Model consensus shows no strong cold front or significant dry-air intrusion that would enable sharp drops to 65°F or below, nor the exceptional heat retention or warm advection needed for an overnight low of 84°F or higher. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% for those extremes versus roughly 19–20% for mid-70s ranges highlight uncertainty in short-range model runs, potential for minor timing shifts in cloud cover or wind, and the inherent variability in boundary-layer processes that control overnight minima. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst likely to refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 26?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 26?
65°F or below 99%
84°F or higher 98%
68-69°F 40%
70-71°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
65°F or below
99%
66-67°F
38%
68-69°F
40%
70-71°F
40%
72-73°F
38%
74-75°F
38%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
38%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
38%
84°F or higher
98%
65°F or below 99%
84°F or higher 98%
68-69°F 40%
70-71°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
65°F or below
$0 Vol.
99%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
38%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
40%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
40%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
38%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
38%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
38%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
38%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
38%
84°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs aligned with National Weather Service guidance, point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 70s°F for Austin on September 26, 2026, with highs near 93–96°F under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.**
This reflects typical late-September conditions in central Texas, where persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico maintains elevated humidity and limits nocturnal radiational cooling. Model consensus shows no strong cold front or significant dry-air intrusion that would enable sharp drops to 65°F or below, nor the exceptional heat retention or warm advection needed for an overnight low of 84°F or higher.
The closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% for those extremes versus roughly 19–20% for mid-70s ranges highlight uncertainty in short-range model runs, potential for minor timing shifts in cloud cover or wind, and the inherent variability in boundary-layer processes that control overnight minima. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst likely to refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs aligned with National Weather Service guidance, point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 70s°F for Austin on September 26, 2026, with highs near 93–96°F under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.**
This reflects typical late-September conditions in central Texas, where persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico maintains elevated humidity and limits nocturnal radiational cooling. Model consensus shows no strong cold front or significant dry-air intrusion that would enable sharp drops to 65°F or below, nor the exceptional heat retention or warm advection needed for an overnight low of 84°F or higher.
The closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% for those extremes versus roughly 19–20% for mid-70s ranges highlight uncertainty in short-range model runs, potential for minor timing shifts in cloud cover or wind, and the inherent variability in boundary-layer processes that control overnight minima. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst likely to refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including model outputs aligned with National Weather Service guidance, point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 70s°F for Austin on September 26, 2026, with highs near 93–96°F under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** This reflects typical late-September conditions in central Texas, where persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico maintains elevated humidity and limits nocturnal radiational cooling. Model consensus shows no strong cold front or significant dry-air intrusion that would enable sharp drops to 65°F or below, nor the exceptional heat retention or warm advection needed for an overnight low of 84°F or higher. The closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% for those extremes versus roughly 19–20% for mid-70s ranges highlight uncertainty in short-range model runs, potential for minor timing shifts in cloud cover or wind, and the inherent variability in boundary-layer processes that control overnight minima. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst likely to refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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