Forecast models and official monitoring from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a likely daily maximum of 32–33°C in Shenzhen on September 26, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Subtropical conditions typical for late September—high solar insolation, moderate southeasterly flow, and afternoon humidity near 70%—produce a narrow diurnal range that rarely exceeds 33°C without strong high-pressure dominance or drops below 31°C absent significant cloud cover or showers. Recent stabilization after earlier September warmth, with minimal model spread in the latest runs, keeps probabilities for 34°C or higher and 30°C or below under 20% combined. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine the exact peak if boundary-layer moisture or wind shifts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 26?
32°C 28%
30°C 28%
33°C 28%
31°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
27°C or below
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
21%
30°C
28%
31°C
23%
32°C
28%
33°C
28%
34°C
17%
35°C
9%
36°C
17%
37°C or higher
3%
32°C 28%
30°C 28%
33°C 28%
31°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
21%
30°C
$0 Vol.
28%
31°C
$0 Vol.
23%
32°C
$0 Vol.
28%
33°C
$0 Vol.
28%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$0 Vol.
9%
36°C
$0 Vol.
17%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official monitoring from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a likely daily maximum of 32–33°C in Shenzhen on September 26, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Subtropical conditions typical for late September—high solar insolation, moderate southeasterly flow, and afternoon humidity near 70%—produce a narrow diurnal range that rarely exceeds 33°C without strong high-pressure dominance or drops below 31°C absent significant cloud cover or showers. Recent stabilization after earlier September warmth, with minimal model spread in the latest runs, keeps probabilities for 34°C or higher and 30°C or below under 20% combined. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine the exact peak if boundary-layer moisture or wind shifts emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official monitoring from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a likely daily maximum of 32–33°C in Shenzhen on September 26, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Subtropical conditions typical for late September—high solar insolation, moderate southeasterly flow, and afternoon humidity near 70%—produce a narrow diurnal range that rarely exceeds 33°C without strong high-pressure dominance or drops below 31°C absent significant cloud cover or showers. Recent stabilization after earlier September warmth, with minimal model spread in the latest runs, keeps probabilities for 34°C or higher and 30°C or below under 20% combined. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine the exact peak if boundary-layer moisture or wind shifts emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47de9d...Forecast models and official monitoring from Chinese meteorological agencies indicate a likely daily maximum of 32–33°C in Shenzhen on September 26, supporting the near-even market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Subtropical conditions typical for late September—high solar insolation, moderate southeasterly flow, and afternoon humidity near 70%—produce a narrow diurnal range that rarely exceeds 33°C without strong high-pressure dominance or drops below 31°C absent significant cloud cover or showers. Recent stabilization after earlier September warmth, with minimal model spread in the latest runs, keeps probabilities for 34°C or higher and 30°C or below under 20% combined. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours could refine the exact peak if boundary-layer moisture or wind shifts emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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