**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 24, 2026, in Cape Town, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and the moderating influence of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean in the city’s Mediterranean climate.** Recent September conditions have run warmer than the long-term average minimum of ~10°C, with several days exceeding 25–30°C maxima, but no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected for the 24th. Overcast or partly cloudy skies and high humidity (often 85–95%) limit overnight temperature drops, while weak pressure gradients keep winds light (typically 5–15 km/h). This setup positions the 15°C (25.0%) and 16°C (22.5%) bins as leading outcomes under current guidance, while the 20°C-or-higher category (43.0%) captures residual model spread or the possibility of slower cooling if marine stratus thickens less than anticipated. Lower bins (10°C or below at 21.5%) remain possible only with unexpected clear breaks or stronger northerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent GFS and regional runs showing stable overnight lows near 15–16°C, with resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations at Cape Town International Airport. Updated model runs or evening soundings could shift probabilities if cloud trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 24?
10°C or below 85%
20°C or higher 43%
14°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
10°C or below
85%
11°C
16%
12°C
18%
13°C
37%
14°C
39%
15°C
26%
16°C
23%
17°C
21%
18°C
39%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
43%
10°C or below 85%
20°C or higher 43%
14°C 39%
18°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
11°C
$0 Vol.
16%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
37%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 24, 2026, in Cape Town, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and the moderating influence of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean in the city’s Mediterranean climate.**
Recent September conditions have run warmer than the long-term average minimum of ~10°C, with several days exceeding 25–30°C maxima, but no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected for the 24th. Overcast or partly cloudy skies and high humidity (often 85–95%) limit overnight temperature drops, while weak pressure gradients keep winds light (typically 5–15 km/h).
This setup positions the 15°C (25.0%) and 16°C (22.5%) bins as leading outcomes under current guidance, while the 20°C-or-higher category (43.0%) captures residual model spread or the possibility of slower cooling if marine stratus thickens less than anticipated. Lower bins (10°C or below at 21.5%) remain possible only with unexpected clear breaks or stronger northerly flow.
Traders are weighting the most recent GFS and regional runs showing stable overnight lows near 15–16°C, with resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations at Cape Town International Airport. Updated model runs or evening soundings could shift probabilities if cloud trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 24, 2026, in Cape Town, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and the moderating influence of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean in the city’s Mediterranean climate.**
Recent September conditions have run warmer than the long-term average minimum of ~10°C, with several days exceeding 25–30°C maxima, but no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected for the 24th. Overcast or partly cloudy skies and high humidity (often 85–95%) limit overnight temperature drops, while weak pressure gradients keep winds light (typically 5–15 km/h).
This setup positions the 15°C (25.0%) and 16°C (22.5%) bins as leading outcomes under current guidance, while the 20°C-or-higher category (43.0%) captures residual model spread or the possibility of slower cooling if marine stratus thickens less than anticipated. Lower bins (10°C or below at 21.5%) remain possible only with unexpected clear breaks or stronger northerly flow.
Traders are weighting the most recent GFS and regional runs showing stable overnight lows near 15–16°C, with resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations at Cape Town International Airport. Updated model runs or evening soundings could shift probabilities if cloud trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 24, 2026, in Cape Town, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and the moderating influence of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean in the city’s Mediterranean climate.** Recent September conditions have run warmer than the long-term average minimum of ~10°C, with several days exceeding 25–30°C maxima, but no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling is expected for the 24th. Overcast or partly cloudy skies and high humidity (often 85–95%) limit overnight temperature drops, while weak pressure gradients keep winds light (typically 5–15 km/h). This setup positions the 15°C (25.0%) and 16°C (22.5%) bins as leading outcomes under current guidance, while the 20°C-or-higher category (43.0%) captures residual model spread or the possibility of slower cooling if marine stratus thickens less than anticipated. Lower bins (10°C or below at 21.5%) remain possible only with unexpected clear breaks or stronger northerly flow. Traders are weighting the most recent GFS and regional runs showing stable overnight lows near 15–16°C, with resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations at Cape Town International Airport. Updated model runs or evening soundings could shift probabilities if cloud trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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