Traders see the tight spread among 36–38°C outcomes as reflecting typical mid-July conditions in Shanghai, where subtropical high pressure supports afternoon peaks near the seasonal average of 34°C but allows model variability in exact heating. Recent heat warnings and confirmed highs reaching 35°C earlier this month underscore the potential for intensification under clear skies and urban heat island effects, while humidity, variable wind, and possible afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in whether the daily maximum edges toward 37°C or stays closer to 36°C. Official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models will likely refine these ranges in the next 48 hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?
38°C 100%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$149,246 Vol.
$149,246 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
38°C 100%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$149,246 Vol.
$149,246 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
32°C or below
$2,163 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,849 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,321 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,335 Vol.
No
36°C
$13,707 Vol.
No
37°C
$22,848 Vol.
No
38°C
$30,008 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$38,281 Vol.
No
40°C
$12,419 Vol.
No
41°C
$10,283 Vol.
No
42°C or higher
$5,031 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight spread among 36–38°C outcomes as reflecting typical mid-July conditions in Shanghai, where subtropical high pressure supports afternoon peaks near the seasonal average of 34°C but allows model variability in exact heating. Recent heat warnings and confirmed highs reaching 35°C earlier this month underscore the potential for intensification under clear skies and urban heat island effects, while humidity, variable wind, and possible afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in whether the daily maximum edges toward 37°C or stays closer to 36°C. Official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models will likely refine these ranges in the next 48 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$149,246End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight spread among 36–38°C outcomes as reflecting typical mid-July conditions in Shanghai, where subtropical high pressure supports afternoon peaks near the seasonal average of 34°C but allows model variability in exact heating. Recent heat warnings and confirmed highs reaching 35°C earlier this month underscore the potential for intensification under clear skies and urban heat island effects, while humidity, variable wind, and possible afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in whether the daily maximum edges toward 37°C or stays closer to 36°C. Official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models will likely refine these ranges in the next 48 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$149,246End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders see the tight spread among 36–38°C outcomes as reflecting typical mid-July conditions in Shanghai, where subtropical high pressure supports afternoon peaks near the seasonal average of 34°C but allows model variability in exact heating. Recent heat warnings and confirmed highs reaching 35°C earlier this month underscore the potential for intensification under clear skies and urban heat island effects, while humidity, variable wind, and possible afternoon convection introduce uncertainty in whether the daily maximum edges toward 37°C or stays closer to 36°C. Official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models will likely refine these ranges in the next 48 hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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