Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs point to persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow moderating coastal Los Angeles temperatures, keeping the July 18 high most likely in the mid-70s at official resolution stations such as KLAX. Morning low clouds and fog followed by afternoon sea breeze typically cap readings several degrees below inland values, consistent with the 76-77°F bin holding the largest share of trader-implied probability. Recent days have featured similar patterns with observed highs resolving in the 74-75°F range, reinforcing consensus around below-average July conditions. Updated model guidance and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of the resolution deadline remain key variables for traders monitoring this short-term market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 18?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 18?
78-79°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$110,004 Vol.
$110,004 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$110,004 Vol.
$110,004 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
69°F or below
$1,139 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,001 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$3,149 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$14,208 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$24,965 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$11,232 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$9,361 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$11,999 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$14,267 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$12,362 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$6,321 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs point to persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow moderating coastal Los Angeles temperatures, keeping the July 18 high most likely in the mid-70s at official resolution stations such as KLAX. Morning low clouds and fog followed by afternoon sea breeze typically cap readings several degrees below inland values, consistent with the 76-77°F bin holding the largest share of trader-implied probability. Recent days have featured similar patterns with observed highs resolving in the 74-75°F range, reinforcing consensus around below-average July conditions. Updated model guidance and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of the resolution deadline remain key variables for traders monitoring this short-term market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$110,004End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs point to persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow moderating coastal Los Angeles temperatures, keeping the July 18 high most likely in the mid-70s at official resolution stations such as KLAX. Morning low clouds and fog followed by afternoon sea breeze typically cap readings several degrees below inland values, consistent with the 76-77°F bin holding the largest share of trader-implied probability. Recent days have featured similar patterns with observed highs resolving in the 74-75°F range, reinforcing consensus around below-average July conditions. Updated model guidance and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of the resolution deadline remain key variables for traders monitoring this short-term market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$110,004End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs point to persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow moderating coastal Los Angeles temperatures, keeping the July 18 high most likely in the mid-70s at official resolution stations such as KLAX. Morning low clouds and fog followed by afternoon sea breeze typically cap readings several degrees below inland values, consistent with the 76-77°F bin holding the largest share of trader-implied probability. Recent days have featured similar patterns with observed highs resolving in the 74-75°F range, reinforcing consensus around below-average July conditions. Updated model guidance and any shifts in the marine inversion strength ahead of the resolution deadline remain key variables for traders monitoring this short-term market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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