Traders see 32–33°C as the most likely peak for Manila on July 20 because the southwest monsoon continues to deliver persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered afternoon showers that limit solar heating and evaporative cooling. Typical July climatology from PAGASA and long-term observations places average daily maxima near 31°C, but brief breaks in convection or stronger easterly flow can allow brief spikes to 33°C, while heavier rain suppresses readings toward 31°C. Model consensus emphasizes these moisture-driven variables over the next 48 hours, with the tight spread between leading outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact timing of convective activity rather than any major shift in the broader pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 20?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 20?
33°C 41%
32°C 36%
34°C 11%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
36%
33°C
41%
34°C
11%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 41%
32°C 36%
34°C 11%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 20, 2026
26°C or below
$121 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$144 Vol.
1%
30°C
$200 Vol.
1%
31°C
$830 Vol.
5%
32°C
$87 Vol.
36%
33°C
$487 Vol.
41%
34°C
$28 Vol.
11%
35°C
$33 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$192 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 32–33°C as the most likely peak for Manila on July 20 because the southwest monsoon continues to deliver persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered afternoon showers that limit solar heating and evaporative cooling. Typical July climatology from PAGASA and long-term observations places average daily maxima near 31°C, but brief breaks in convection or stronger easterly flow can allow brief spikes to 33°C, while heavier rain suppresses readings toward 31°C. Model consensus emphasizes these moisture-driven variables over the next 48 hours, with the tight spread between leading outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact timing of convective activity rather than any major shift in the broader pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$2,374End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 32–33°C as the most likely peak for Manila on July 20 because the southwest monsoon continues to deliver persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered afternoon showers that limit solar heating and evaporative cooling. Typical July climatology from PAGASA and long-term observations places average daily maxima near 31°C, but brief breaks in convection or stronger easterly flow can allow brief spikes to 33°C, while heavier rain suppresses readings toward 31°C. Model consensus emphasizes these moisture-driven variables over the next 48 hours, with the tight spread between leading outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact timing of convective activity rather than any major shift in the broader pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,374End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 32–33°C as the most likely peak for Manila on July 20 because the southwest monsoon continues to deliver persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered afternoon showers that limit solar heating and evaporative cooling. Typical July climatology from PAGASA and long-term observations places average daily maxima near 31°C, but brief breaks in convection or stronger easterly flow can allow brief spikes to 33°C, while heavier rain suppresses readings toward 31°C. Model consensus emphasizes these moisture-driven variables over the next 48 hours, with the tight spread between leading outcomes reflecting uncertainty in exact timing of convective activity rather than any major shift in the broader pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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